“Shelvey format” is a phrase that history is unlikely to understand.
The facility, named for the 150-acre golf course and luxury housing complex owned by Steve Witkoff, emerged Thursday as another name for the next phase of the Trump administration’s effort to end the biggest European conflict since the 1940s.
Mr. Witkoff’s fellow peace envoy, real estate tycoon Jared Kushner, used the term in a somber X post on Thursday, suggesting that a broad peace deal is needed in Europe. “For more than 30 years, Europe and Russia have struggled to establish a sustainable security framework,” he wrote.
President Trump signaled he had reinforced this idea Thursday after meeting with Moscow envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House. “I can’t tell you what we discussed, but I can tell you that it’s going to be a big agreement,” he said. “It will involve more than Ukraine, and it could even involve all of Europe.”
Three European officials contacted by CNN on Friday morning did not know what Mr. Kushner or Mr. Trump were referring to. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in an interview with CNN’s Jack Tapper on Friday that he knew few details of the proposal and warned that it would not be easy.
Kushner’s post praised five key goals: “permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communication, increased military transparency, mutual measures to reduce escalation risks, and a durable framework for long-term European security and stability.” NATO will be key, the paper said, even if the above seems to suggest a small role for the alliance, of which the United States is an irreplaceable founding member.
Mr. Kushner’s ambitious word salad did not mention Russia’s invasions of two neighboring countries during the same period after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or its two wars with Chechnya. Moreover, it seemed to suggest that any agreement would complement NATO, rather than undermine its reason for existence.
NATO and European officials have been meeting in Brussels for the past 72 hours to discuss economic and security concerns around Ukraine ahead of US-led Russia-Ukraine talks in Abu Dhabi next week. The United States will therefore try to reignite discussions toward resolving the conflict. Moscow has sent Vladimir Medinsky, a diplomat with a penchant for history lectures, to lead the delegation, with the appointment leading many to believe that the Kremlin is trying to turn the clock back to May 2025, when the last talks took place. In fact, months of discussions in Miami, Abu Dhabi, Alaska, Istanbul, and Geneva have proven only one thing: Russia wants to achieve its war goals before ending it.
But the Shell Bay format, which is neither a “company” nor a “game” but a bay, has emerged at a time when a wounded Trump, who culminated after the midterm elections, will soon face greater obstacles in domestic policy and seek to build his legacy on a perhaps less restrained foreign policy.
Iran is unlikely to be a candidate for defiant action, given that President Trump and many Republican leaders have blamed the war for this week’s poor election results. Perhaps some form of peace in Ukraine is a more attractive option, and perhaps President Trump, through continued closeness and sympathy with Russian President Vladimir Putin, may see a way to truly reshape the world, enrich the options of a minority of Americans, and free America from burdensome European security consolidation.
Despite both Kiev and Russia sending delegations to the White House to meet with the first lady on Thursday, Trump reportedly only met with Russian envoy Dmitriev. The savvy English-speaking investor is pushing various potential business deals related to improved relations between Russia and the United States, and Democratic investigators have questioned whether Trump’s inner circle could benefit from them.
Ukraine’s sudden return to President Trump’s agenda has heightened unrest in European capitals. “Now that the midterm elections are over, it seems inevitable that President Trump will focus on Ukraine,” one European official told me. Most people are clearly aware that no agreement can simply be imposed on Ukraine, or Europe, without their consent. “Ukraine’s need for a European partner (during and post-war) is greater than being forced to accept a Russian settlement, even if President Trump tries to promote it,” the official said.
The risk is to morale and mood music during the final 18 months of President Trump’s presidency. Already plagued by water outages, cell phone calls, and power outages in Kiev, Ukraine’s upcoming winter could make it fall prey to further inexplicable restrictions on U.S. intelligence and technical assistance, as we have seen in recent months. Europe could face increased sabotage and gray-zone provocations from Moscow.
The risk is not that NATO and Ukraine, other than the United States, suddenly reduce their defenses or accept limits on their defenses. If history is any guide, 18 months is a short period of time to conclude any agreement given Russia’s diplomatic schedule.
What this period of possible U.S.-Russian rapprochement threatens may be even more dangerous. That means President Putin may interpret the U.S. denial of aid to Europe and Ukraine as another reason to escalate and relentlessly pursue the battlefield in a war of his choice that has failed due to five years of aggression and two years of President Trump.
Talk about a deal between Kushner and Trump may mean nothing. But it opens a short window of opportunity for an increasingly nervous Kremlin. And that may tempt the Russian leadership to take even more reckless risks.
