5 things to know before the stock market opens on Monday

Happy Monday. While I was busy being a groomsman at a wedding in Michigan, artificial intelligence executives were busy making big business and policy moves.

Stock futures are falling this morning. The three major averages are coming off a losing week.

Here are five important things investors need to know to start their trading day.

Concerns about the safety of artificial intelligence reached a fever pitch over the weekend after Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei wrote in an essay that AI companies should “slow down” on improving their AI models.

Here’s what you need to know:

Amodei laid out a three-phase plan that he said would set the pace of development “without sacrificing commercial advantage or America’s lead in AI.” The AI ​​leader told CBS News that the “toughest dilemma” would be if China also did not slow down its development of AI models. As CNBC’s Ashley Caputo and Kate Rooney write, Amodei’s call for a slowdown creates a tough balance for Anthropic as it approaches a historic IPO. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Elon Musk immediately expressed support for Amodei’s proposal, a rare show of solidarity between the three parties. Late Saturday, Altman ruled out an IPO for the ChatGPT maker this year, saying it would be “unwise” to go public at this time. Lawmakers in Washington, D.C., are rushing to determine whether and how the industry should be regulated. A group of Democratic lawmakers called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to adjourn the chamber until the safeguards are passed.Nasdaq 100 futures The stock fell more than 1% this morning as AI stocks fell. Follow live market updates here.

Oil prices are rising this morning after Saudi Arabia shut down a major pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, citing damage caused by drones fired from Iraq. Saudi Arabia did not say how bad the damage was or how long the closure would last.

The East-West pipeline can carry 7 million barrels of oil per day and has helped alleviate some of the supply shortages caused by the Iran war. A Hormuz diplomatic meeting between Iran and Gulf Arab states scheduled for Monday was postponed following the pipeline attack.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures and Brent crude oil futures were both up more than 3% this morning. Last week, the price of a barrel of U.S. crude oil exceeded $100 for the first time since May as fighting in the Middle East intensified.

Analysts expect the U.S. to hit the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling sometime next year, at which point Congress will have to raise or suspend the cap before the Treasury runs out of tools to prevent the U.S. from falling into a catastrophic default.

As CNBC’s Garrett Downs reports, the results of November’s election could shape the path to a resolution. If Democrats win one or both chambers of Congress, they could use debt ceiling avoidance to score a policy win from President Donald Trump.

Additionally, President Trump’s recent promise to give every adult American a $5,000 dividend if Republicans retain their House and Senate majorities in November could push the country over the edge even faster. Some Republicans said they would not raise the cap unless there were significant cuts to government spending.

Inflation is rising again faster than wage growth. As a result, many Americans have less purchasing power and are, as one economist puts it, “much worse off.”

According to U.S. government statistics released Friday, consumer prices rose 3.4% in August compared to the same month last year. Average hourly wages increased by 3.1% over the same period.

As CNBC’s Deena Zaidi reports, rising energy costs due to the war are partly to blame. The 3.9% rise in gasoline prices in August accounted for more than a third of the rise in the consumer price index. On top of that, AI could also put pressure on salaries.

With football season and election season in full swing, prediction markets are once again betting on a boom.

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are entering fall bigger than ever, with big events like presidential elections and sporting events driving adoption in recent years. Now, with the start of the NFL season and midterm elections in full swing, prediction market companies are gearing up for what Robinhood’s JB McKenzie calls “a bit of a supercycle.”

As CNBC’s Davis Giangiulio writes, other events such as this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and October’s MLB playoffs could also support demand. The coming months could be make-or-break for smaller players in the sector looking to gain staying power.

Here’s what to watch this week:

Tuesday: Wednesday: Federal Reserve policy meeting begins: lenner Income (after the bell). Federal Reserve Decisions. August Retail Sales Data Thursday: August Housing Starts and Pending Home Sales Data

—CNBC’s Ashley Caputo, Kate Rooney, Garrett Downs, Arjun Karpal, Sean Conlon, Elsa Oren, Justina Li, Yingshan Li, Spencer Kimball, Deena Zaidi and Davis Giangiulio contributed to this report.

Josephine Rozzelle edited this version.