There is a simple reason, Nasdaq 100 Index Closed on Friday at a new record: The world’s largest company achieved its first new record since May.
Nvidiaaccounting for 13% of Nasdaq and 8% of Nasdaq. S&P500 indexup 1.3% on Friday, ending seven weeks of sideways trading over a high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and the corporate executives he calls his “super intelligence.”
The increase makes Jensen Huang’s semiconductor business worth just under $5.7 trillion, and based on the price of options traded on Nvidia, it is likely to pass the $6 trillion threshold by the end of this month. This should be a comforting concept for stock bulls.
NVIDIA currently has about a 50% chance of reaching a $6 trillion valuation between now and the end of this month, with a 13% chance of doing so this week, according to Delta’s market maker pricing for NVIDIA options expiring this week and October 30th, which measures the sensitivity of option pricing to stock price movements. The chance of that happening between now and December 18th is about 67%.
They also suggest that there is a 1 in 16 chance that NVIDIA will reach $7 trillion by November 20th. Based on the current share count, NVIDIA would need to reach $248 to pass the milestone.
Nvidia since the beginning of the year
“NVIDIA’s share buyback announcement was a positive sign,” Ben Emmons, managing director at Highline Asset Management, said in a note to clients last week. “A share buyback is more than just a payment, it is a capital allocation event that expresses confidence in long-term AI demand.”
When using delta to measure different probabilities, it is important to note that the same size is equally likely to move in the opposite direction. This is primarily true for Nvidia, as some of the stock’s call options currently trade with higher implied volatility than comparable puts, Barchart data shows. This kind of “call skew” indicates that traders are biased towards hedging to the upside.
