Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on September 16, 2026 in New York City.
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of 10 year Treasury bill Yields fell on Wednesday after surging earlier in the day as traders awaited further inflation data to be released on Thursday.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, fell more than 2 basis points to 5.19%. Yields had risen earlier in the day following the release of the September consumer price index, which was better than expected.
longer date 30 years US Treasury The yield, which is most sensitive to geopolitical events, fell more than 4 basis points to 5.517%.
of 2 years treasury The yield, which closely tracks the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, rose more than 1 basis point to 4.808% after earlier hitting its highest level since Sept. 29.
One basis point is equal to 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yield and price are inversely related.
The midday reversal occurred as stocks sold off. S&P500 The stock has fallen more than 1%, prompting some investors to return to the relative safety of the bond market.
On Thursday, investors will receive the September producer price index, September retail sales data and the weekly number of new jobless claims. Economists compiled by Dow Jones expect the PPI to rise 0.6% from last month and 5.5% annually.
The data follows Wednesday’s September Consumer Price Index report, which rose 3.7% year over year, beating the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 3.6%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, came in at an annualized rate of 2.6%, compared to the consensus estimate of 2.5%.
The latest inflation rates are released just two weeks before the Fed’s next interest rate decision.
Christopher Rapkey, chief economist at Forwardbonds, said the central bank may need to raise rates further and keep them there for an extended period in 2027 as inflation remains weak.
“With the 10-year Treasury yield surging following today’s shocking inflation report, bond bulls have reversed course and are running in the opposite direction,” he said. “Inflation is alive and well, and the only way for the Warsh Fed to rein in inflation is to raise interest rates even higher.”
The probability of a quarter-point hike in the federal funds rate on Oct. 28 (currently 3.75% to 4.00%) rose to about 35% from just 22.1% the day before, according to futures trading as measured by CME’s FedWatch tool.
There is now a more than 90% chance that there will be at least one more rate hike this year, including a 40% chance that rates will rise by 0.5 percentage point, which is double the probability seen just one day ago.
— With additional reporting by CNBC’s John Meloy.
