BANGKOK, THAILAND – OCTOBER 16: The Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group was held on October 16, 2026 at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Center (QSNCC) in Bangkok, Thailand.
Matt Hunt | Anadolu | Getty Images
Global finance chiefs discussed the biggest risks facing the global economy in Bangkok last week, with debt, artificial intelligence and trade imbalances topping the list. Meanwhile, China, long a major risk factor in these discussions, is no longer at the top of the list of concerns.
1. Financial crisis monitoring
The meeting in Bangkok will be the first in Asia since it was held in Bali, Indonesia in 2018. Thailand last held one in 1991, six years before the baht was depegged from the US dollar, sparking the Asian financial crisis.
Fast forward to 2026 and anything from global imbalances to the AI boom or massive debt accumulation in the “global north” could trigger the next financial crisis, Kevin Gallagher, director of the Center for Global Development Policy at Boston University, told reporters in Beijing after attending a meeting of the IMF and World Bank.
The IMF expressed optimism for economies that stand to benefit from global AI supply chains, such as South Korea, Japan and China, but was bearish for those that do not, warning that advances in AI are widening the gap between economies.
AI-related borrowing is also pushing up debt levels and competing with governments for capital, further increasing borrowing costs. The IMF has warned that if AI technology fails to deliver the promised productivity gains, it could cause severe repercussions for the global economy.
Mr Gallagher said he was watching to see if the IMF, Federal Reserve and People’s Bank of China could work together, or if they ended up going in different directions and “making things even worse”.
The U.S. Treasury is at odds with the fund over its own debt. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said strong growth alone cannot put the United States on a sustainable trajectory, with a federal debt of more than $40 trillion. David Zervos, an adviser to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, dismissed the warning. “It’s good to remember how confusing their predictions have been in the past,” he says. “So take everything with a grain of salt.”
There was little sign of coordination. Chinese and U.S. finance officials were seated distanced from each other at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Bangkok on Thursday, according to a layout obtained by CNBC.
China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, told the International Monetary and Financial Committee on Saturday that China supports strengthening the fund’s oversight of spillovers from “fiscal risks in major developed countries.” He said countries should address their budget deficits, while those with surpluses should increase consumption and investment.
2. Ukraine once again becomes the focal point of the flashpoint
Russia and Ukraine are back at the center of this week’s talks amid rising tensions. Russian officials also once again attended the G20 finance chiefs’ meeting held on the sidelines of last Thursday’s IMF meeting.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attended the Group of 20 in person for the second time this year, after August’s Asheville, North Carolina, meeting, but he faced harsh criticism from European leaders and was forced to decline to participate in a group photo.
In a statement to CNBC, German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil reiterated his dissatisfaction with the Russian delegation’s presence, saying: “Russia returns as a full member of the G20 and pretends to have a seat at the table again – that won’t happen to me, and it won’t happen to other European countries.”
Nearly half of the IMFC representatives left the room while Siluanov spoke in Russian on Saturday. Ukraine’s Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshny told Reuters he was surprised that so many finance officials expressed solidarity with Ukraine, calling it a “deeply emotional moment.”
After a three-hour meeting on Thursday night, the G7 announced 260 million euros ($300 million) in funding for Ukraine to repair infrastructure at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and expects to reach 500 million euros to fund the entire project at a donor conference in Paris next month.
The IMF has warned that rising public debt is squeezing the space governments have to spend on priorities such as defence.
3. China is lagging behind.
China featured prominently at the 2018 IMF meeting, just as the US-China trade war was beginning. But this year, little was said about the country in panels and interviews.
Tim Adams, president and CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Institute of International Finance, said during recent visits to Singapore and Bangkok, the topic of China rarely came up in conversations.
“There would have been long discussions about U.S.-China relations, China’s impact on European (export) Shock 2.0, China’s impact on global trade and global manufacturing. (But) in practice, very little has been done,” Adams said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.
The reason for this, he said, is that U.S.-China relations appear to have reached a “certain level of stability” and investors’ concerns about China as a risk are receding.
“The perception is that the relationship is stable and strong, with no visible tensions other than a series of issues that have been going on for some time,” Adams said.
He said investors remain reluctant to invest directly in the country, but are enthusiastic about the planned IPOs of Chinese tech companies. He also cited real demand for Chinese government bonds as the currency rose slightly from stability.
“This seems to be more of a standard, routine assessment, like any other risk, rather than China being something special,” Adams said.
—CNBC’s Penny Chen contributed to this report.
