US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to an all-time low, indicating that Americans angry about the rising cost of living and the highly unpopular US-Israel war against Iran may punish him in the upcoming midterm elections.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found that most Americans are dissatisfied with President Trump’s performance, and more say they plan to vote for a Democrat on Nov. 3.
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Incumbent U.S. presidents traditionally experience a decline in approval ratings around midterm elections, which often coincides with their party losing seats in Congress.
Experts say Trump’s approval ratings are lower than any of his predecessors, making it possible for Democrats to achieve their goal of flipping both chambers of Congress.
All 435 House of Representatives constituencies and 33 of the 100 Senate seats will be up for election.
Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House, 218-214, and a 53-47 lead in the Senate. But Democrats are campaigning hard to win majorities in both chambers, and this scenario could pose a major headache for President Trump.
Here’s what the latest polls mean for these elections.
What do the latest polls show?
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that about 31% of Americans said they were satisfied with President Trump’s performance, the lowest number ever during Trump’s two terms as president. Two weeks ago, that number was 32 percent.
When asked which party they would vote for if midterm elections were held today, 47% chose the Democratic Party and 35% chose the Republican Party. This represents a 12-point advantage for Democrats, their largest lead ever in the current cycle and expanding from a 7-point lead two weeks ago.
The drop in support for the Republican Party is due to an increase in the number of women choosing the Democratic Party, which now accounts for about half of those surveyed. Additionally, 40% more voters said Democrats are better at managing the economy, compared to 33% who chose Republicans.
The poll of 1,679 adults is a general ballot that gives an overview of voter sentiment, but it doesn’t break down by state, so the results could still be surprising.
What is the history of presidential polling before midterm elections?
The president and the party in charge of the White House typically face some kind of backlash in midterm elections.
According to the University of Virginia Center for Politics, supporters of non-presidential parties are often more motivated to vote in midterm elections than other supporters.
The think tank also found that in 12 of the past 20 midterm elections since 1946, the incumbent president’s approval rating worsened between July and November immediately before the election. There were only seven cases in which the president’s approval rating improved, and in one case during the 2006 election under George W. Bush, the president’s approval rating remained unchanged.
What does this pattern mean for interim performance?
Researchers say that while presidential approval ratings have become the norm, increasing favorable views of the incumbent president still often correlate with the ruling party losing fewer seats in midterm elections.
When a president’s approval rating drops significantly, the party in power often loses more seats.
Data from the American Presidency Project, run by the University of California (UC) Santa Barbara, shows that in 20 midterm elections held since 1946, ruling parties lost House seats in 18 of them, but a popular president often softened the impact.
For example, Americans’ favorable view of President George Bush (75% in the 1990 midterm elections) meant that Republicans lost only eight seats in both houses of Congress.
But a study compiling data from the University of California, Santa Barbara found that when a president’s approval rating falls below 50 percent, that party is likely to do poorly in the election.
For example, in 1994, when President Bill Clinton’s first median approval rating was 46 percent, Democrats lost 52 seats in Congress.
However, by the next midterm election in 1998, when Clinton’s approval rating rose to 66 percent, Democrats lost just five seats.
What does that mean for Trump?
Researchers say President Trump’s plummeting approval ratings amid the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran are likely to have a negative impact on the Republican Party.
Researchers say it is highly unlikely that Republicans will maintain a majority in Congress, as President Trump has generally poor ratings, the lowest of any president in U.S. history, according to a tally by the University of California, Santa Barbara.
However, the question remains of how much damage the party could suffer from President Trump’s policies.
There may still be hope for Republicans. According to the Center for Politics, presidents’ approval ratings in the past five midterm elections have generally been slightly higher in exit polls than in pre-election polls, because subsequent polls include people who actually voted.
This means that the outcome of midterm elections will ultimately depend on how well parties can persuade their supporters to actually vote.
How many seats will the Democratic Party win?
Senate Democrats are likely to pick up wins from Republicans in North Carolina and Maine, according to NBC News, which conducts its own polls and provides state-by-state breakdowns. NBC also sees Alaska, Iowa, and Texas as states that could go either way.
In the House, NBC predicts “likely flips” from Republicans to Democrats in 15 districts. The four districts currently held by Republicans and three districts held by Democrats are rated as “toss-ups.”
If Democrats win all close races without losing any of their current seats, they would gain a total of 22 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate.
