Protesters wave French flags as they pass by a fire during clashes before the start of a demonstration against the “high cost of living” in Marseille, southern France, on October 17, 2026.
Thibault Moritz | AFP | Getty Images
As protests intensify in France, Carsi traders believe far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is increasingly likely to win the country’s 2027 presidential election.
Student-led protests first erupted in Paris in September over dissatisfaction with school conditions and teacher shortages, but spilled over into public anger over the country’s cost of living and public services such as education and health care. According to authorities, more than 500,000 people demonstrated across the country over the weekend.
Since the protests began, Carsi’s trading activity over who will be the next president of France has jumped on Carsi. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen’s chance of winning rose to 53% from 39% last month.
On September 26, just days after the protests began, speculators gave current Cannes mayor David Rinard a 44.7% chance of becoming the next president. The prediction came just a day after he held a large campaign rally in the run-up to the presidential election.
Mr. Riznard’s chances of defeating Mr. Carsi in the 2027 presidential election had fallen to 11% by Tuesday afternoon. The contract asks, “Who will win the next French presidential election?” It will be verified by the French government next year.
Le Pen has repeatedly criticized the escalating civil unrest and solidified it as a key message of her election campaign, arguing that her leadership under Emmanuel Macron’s centrist government was contributing to the conditions behind the protests.
“Yesterday, you saw our cities, our streets and our country beaten, abused and looted,” Le Pen wrote in an Oct. 18 post on social media platform
October 17, 2026: Protesters on October 17 in Limoges set fire to the town hall of Limoges-Haute-Vienne in France’s Nouvelle-Aquitaine region.
Elise Cabane | AFP | Getty Images
“We are experiencing a deep crisis of trust and authority that threatens our democracy. This observation should alarm us: our country is caught between violence and powerlessness, or even held hostage,” Le Pen added.
French stocks are also facing volatility, with the CAC40 index down 2.8% last month and about 6% over the past six months. Yields on the country’s government bonds, which measure the government’s borrowing costs, are also rising, with the 10-year bond yield trading above 4.9%.
“It’s going to be difficult to see the deficit come down without painful policies,” Sharon Bell, senior European equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Monday.
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