President Trump’s tariffs loom over Maine Senate race between Collins and Jackson

PORTLAND, Maine — In the same week that President Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported steel, the domestic supplier of wire mesh that Mark Brooks uses to make lobster traps in Maine increased its prices by 20%.

As the war between the U.S. and Iran escalated and diesel prices began to rise, Mr. Brooks began paying freight premiums for materials and felt sales slump as lobstermen tightened their belts. And when Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney imposed a 50% tariff on U.S. lobster traps in September in retaliation for President Trump’s own tariffs on Canadian goods, the roughly $2 million a year in shipments Brooks typically sends across the northern border dried up virtually overnight.

“This is basically the worst operating environment we’ve seen in 40 years,” said Brooks, a third-generation lobster trap manufacturer and supplier. Mr. Brooks and his brother operate Brooks Trap Mill and its seven locations in Maine. “We’ve been eating as much as we can to keep prices down, but we can’t eat any more.”

Few states are more vulnerable to the U.S.-Canada trade war than Maine, which sends more than 40 percent of its exports to the U.S.’s northern neighbor. These challenges are piled on top of already exacerbating cost-of-living issues, especially those related to things like household heating oil, which Maine relies on more than any other state. As a result, tariffs specifically, and affordability concerns more broadly, have taken center stage in this year’s “contested” Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and former Maine Senate President Democratic Troy Jackson.

Polls show the economy is the top concern for voters in Maine and across the country this election. In a Suffolk University poll of likely Maine voters conducted this month, more than 90% of respondents rated the state’s economy as “fair” or “poor,” but a majority said the state was heading in the wrong direction and 57% gave President Trump an unfavorable rating.

The key question here is whether that dissatisfaction will lead to a vote for Collins, or whether Collins will be able to dissociate himself from unpopular parts of Trump and the Republican Party’s policies.

“That’s one of the big questions in this campaign: How independent is Susan Collins from Donald Trump?” said Jim Melcher, a political science professor at the University of Maine at Farmington.

Across the country, Republican candidates vying for competitive seats are finding ways to distance themselves from the White House.

In Michigan, Republican candidate Mike Rogers criticized tariffs on Canada and called for an early end to the Iran war. In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate, opposed President Trump’s decision to temporarily reduce tariffs on imported ground meat, arguing that it would hurt U.S. ranchers. Additionally, Republican Senate candidates in New Hampshire, Alaska, Ohio and Nebraska have all expressed concern about President Trump’s decision to reverse course and allow imports of Russian diesel just weeks after signing legislation expanding sanctions against Russia.

But Maine presents the ultimate test of whether this year’s voters will distinguish between the president and other party members. Collins, long known and admired for his independent work, is the only Republican incumbent running for re-election in a state that voted against Trump in 2024. And polls show the race is close, with Jackson leading by an average of two points in polls compiled by Fifty Plus One.

“We shouldn’t have a trade war with Canada.”

Both Mr. Collins and Mr. Jackson have harshly criticized the tariffs, which are extremely unpopular here. A CNN poll last month found that 7 in 10 likely Maine voters say tariffs on Canadian goods are bad for the state, while only 12% say tariffs are a “good thing.”

But candidates are divided on who is responsible for the economic damage and who is better able to respond.

Mr. Collins has repeatedly pushed back against the Trump administration on tariffs and was able to secure exemptions from Canadian tariffs on some key items, including concrete, wood pulp and road salt. Jackson argues that Congress could have blocked the tariffs altogether and that Collins could have done more to help the state, given his seniority in Washington.

“The bottom line is that both Troy and I would have voted against the Canadian tariff,” Collins said during the Oct. 13 debate, the third of four between the candidates. “But I was able to negotiate and have certain items removed from the tariff list. Troy would have gotten nothing.”

“I’m not going to give any credit to Sen. Collins for taking things off the list when he shouldn’t have made the list,” Jackson responded. “We shouldn’t have a trade war with Canada.”

“Mr. Troy has worked along the Canadian border for most of his life, so he knows how important this relationship is to Maine’s economy, and he sees President Trump’s tariffs for what they are: a tax on Maine families and small businesses,” Jackson campaign spokeswoman Maggie Amjad said in response to CNBC’s request for comment on the tariffs and the impact of the Iran war.

Collins’ campaign declined further comment on the tariffs.

Ottawa’s last-minute decision to remove lobster from the retaliation list spared the lobster industry the worst of Canada’s tariffs. Collins’ team said the move also contributed to her influence. She met with Canada’s ambassador in Washington to discuss the lobster and seafood exemption, and then issued a statement warning that the tariffs “will cause significant harm to Maine’s lobstermen.”

But lobstermen say almost everything else they use on their boats every day remains expensive. Brooks’ traps cost $130 two years ago, but now sell for $180. According to AAA, the use of diesel fuel to power boats has increased 67% across the state in the past year. Much of the rope is imported from India, and much of the bait is imported from Europe, but rising tariffs and fuel costs have made prices more expensive.

“Everything we do in this business now costs more,” said Steve Train, a lobster fisherman who hauls in 400 lobster traps a day out of Casco Bay. “These tariff battles are not going to help us.”

Train blames President Trump on the tariffs, saying he has “circumvented Congress” and “issued executive orders that do things that cause us problems.” But he praises the work Collins has done to help the lobster industry. A registered independent, he said he plans to split his vote between parties in this election, but will vote one vote for Mr. Collins.

“She has been like a guardian angel to the lobster industry for many years,” he said. “I’m in the same party as someone I hate, so I can’t go against them.”