With less than two weeks left until the congressional election, Americans are about as pessimistic about the economy as they were when we were emerging from the pandemic, and President Donald Trump’s economic approval ratings are at an all-time low, according to the latest CNBC National Economic Survey.
Eight in 10 Americans rate the economy as “fair” or “poor,” the highest number since December 2023, in new polling data released Thursday, one of several ominous signs of why Republican candidates are struggling in the midterm elections.
Economic pessimism is strongest among Democrats and independents, but there has also been a strong trend toward economic pessimism among Republicans in recent months. Overall, 63% of people are pessimistic about the current state and outlook of the economy, an increase of 1 point from the July survey. But that share now includes 35% of Republicans, an increase of 6 points since July, and Republican pessimism is at its highest level during either of President Trump’s two terms.
“We didn’t get to this point because independents or Democrats got worse. We got this far because Republicans got worse,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican pollster who worked on the poll. “Ever since Trump became president,[Republicans]have maintained a narrow margin that the current economy is either great or good. And now that’s kind of broken down and changed.”
The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide found that Americans prefer Democratic control of Congress by a margin of 52% to 45%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The 7 percentage point difference for Democrats means a 3 percentage point increase for Democrats since the July survey.
The poll had other ominous signs for Republicans. According to the survey, 72% of Democrats expressed a high level of interest in the November 3 midterm elections, compared to just 62% of Republicans. Women are 10 points more interested in elections than men and prefer Democratic control of Congress by 22 points. Independents support the Democratic Party’s government by a wide margin of 49% to 33%. A majority of survey respondents also said Democrats would do a better job than Republicans on many of the issues they cited as their top concerns, including corruption and the cost of food and gas.
Read the full survey results here.
In eight states with competitive Senate races, respondents preferred Democratic control of Congress by 4 percentage points. In the 2024 presidential election, Trump led these eight states by a total of 10 points.
“Depending on how you look at it, it shows things moving either away from Republicans or towards Democrats,” said Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Associates, which tracks Democratic polls for the poll. “If I were leading a Republican campaign going into these next two weeks, I would be very nervous.”
Despite the economic downturn, President Trump’s overall approval rating remains stable, with only 40% approving and 59% disapproving. His current net approval rating is -19 percentage points, compared to -8 percentage points a year ago.
What’s even more shocking is that the president’s net economic approval rating has fallen by 9 points since the last survey in July. The president’s approval rating on the economy fell from 38% to 34% in three months, while his disapproval rating rose from 60% to 65%. The economic approval rating is -31, the lowest in either of President Trump’s two terms. The 65% disapproval rating is one point higher than former President Joe Biden’s worst result and the highest of any president surveyed by CNBC since President Barack Obama.
Thirty-six percent of respondents cited government corruption as their top concern, giving Democrats a four-point lead in addressing the issue. On the second most important issue, the cost of food and groceries, the Democratic lead widened to +16 from +7 in the July survey. Democrats also outperformed Republicans on protecting democracy and addressing rising gas prices.
Among those most concerned about elections, those respondents say corruption and protecting democracy are top issues, and they want Democratic control of Congress by a wide margin.
Republicans continued to have a strong lead on border security and immigration, but their lead on immigration fell from +15 to +9. Meanwhile, Democrats are seen as better at dealing with jobs, unemployment, and Iran, flipping from +2 for Republicans to +5 for Democrats.
The public remained skeptical about the value of war with Iran. The survey found that only 46% of Americans believe it would be worthwhile to take military action to thwart Iran’s development of nuclear capabilities, down from a majority of 53% in April. Also, only 35% said military action was worth it given rising gas prices.
Although the survey showed that there remained deep divisions along party lines, there was broad agreement on the issue of corruption. Ninety-three percent said elected officials, including the president and members of Congress, should not be allowed to personally own or trade stock in individual companies that contract with the federal government. Additionally, 89% said that companies owned or invested in by members of the immediate family of a sitting president should not be allowed to receive federal contracts.
While corruption is the biggest issue, prices are clearly the biggest concern for registered voters. Taken together, concerns about food, gas and housing costs are top concerns for 57% of respondents. 80% said prices are rising, 5 percentage points higher than a year ago, and 55% said prices are rising faster than usual, also 5 percentage points higher. In fact, the survey found that the cost of groceries surpassed gas as a major concern, 34% to 23%. This is the greatest concern among most major demographic groups, but most among people with incomes under $30,000 and supporters of Democratic Socialists of America policies. But this is also the biggest problem for Republicans who don’t consider themselves MAGA supporters.
Both polling organizations were cautious about how widespread a Democratic victory could be. POS’s Roberts said this is a battle of “maps and momentum.”
“Nationwide, there are some signs that the electorate is leaning toward the Democratic Party,” he said. “But the movement is also much more concentrated, the parties’ bases are stronger, and the ‘big change’ will depend on whether Democrats flip many districts and states that Trump easily won just two years ago.”
Campbell doesn’t expect a “redistricting” election like 1994 or 2008. “This looks like a reversion to the mean, with young voters and people of color returning to the Democratic base, fueled by independents who are fed up with Trumpenomics.” He added: “No one expected that the Democratic candidate would suddenly take away 15% of the Republican vote.”
