During nearly a decade in Congress, Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick has cultivated an image as a centrist Republican willing to move beyond partisan lines and stand up to President Donald Trump.
It’s this formula that has allowed Fitzpatrick, one of the most moderate members of Congress, to win over swing voters and consistently outperform his party in battleground states that went to Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024, according to local newspapers. But in a year when Republican candidates across the country are under pressure from Trump, Fitzpatrick faces a tough challenge from Democrat Bob Harvey. Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District is testing whether his personal brand can withstand a difficult national political environment.
“Brian Fitzpatrick is Brian Fitzpatrick. I’m not Donald Trump. I’m not anyone else. And that’s how voters should approach this issue,” Fitzpatrick told CNBC. “I’m not happy with (Trump). I’m not happy with his tone. I don’t think he’s done a good enough job. I think a leader is supposed to unite the country and unite the people. He hasn’t done that.”
The battle between Mr. Fitzpatrick and Mr. Harvey comes as President Trump’s approval ratings plummet, the Iran war drags on and consumer prices rise. The race is one of about 40 House seats up for consideration in the Nov. 3 election that will determine control of Congress during the final two years of President Trump’s term. Pennsylvania voters are often an indicator of national trends, and the state’s location on the East Coast makes Mr. Fitzpatrick’s district a closely watched district.
Democrats are on the offensive, pouring money into races previously thought to be out of reach, such as Fitzpatrick, in a race that could signal Democratic success in all but the most vulnerable seats.
But Mr. Harvey, a former high school social studies teacher and county commissioner, is still a long way from winning. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter flipped the race in the Democratic direction from “Strong R” to “Lean R” earlier this month. Erin Covey, head of House election coverage at the Cook Report, called the Fitzpatrick Democrat “Moby Dick.”
As part of Democrats’ final push to unseat Mr. Fitzpatrick, Mr. Harvey joined House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro at a rally in Bucks County earlier this month.
“This is a very important state,” Jeffries told reporters after the rally. “Federal is a big swing state and Bucks County is a big swing state. So this is a very important race.”
Fitzpatrick, a former FBI agent who grew up in Bucks County, which makes up the majority of the school district, succeeded his brother Michael in 2017. He is co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and has voted against the White House and his party more times this Congress than any other House Republican, according to a recent Philadelphia Inquirer analysis of his voting record. The newspaper endorsed Harvey earlier this month.
Fitzpatrick is also part of a bipartisan group that has been outspoken in recent weeks as the White House has taken a more conciliatory stance toward Russia. Last week, he led legislation to rescind President Trump’s recent approval of U.S. purchases of Russian diesel. He also signed a bipartisan letter calling on the Pentagon to restore access to satellite communications vital to Ukraine’s national defense after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the service had been downgraded. The New York Times reported that Mr. Fitzpatrick threatened to pursue the removal of U.S. officials responsible for the economic slowdown.
Mr. Fitzpatrick is seeking a sixth term in the House and has easily fended off Democratic challenges for most of his career. Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant based in Pennsylvania, said Fitzpatrick is “the most moderate member in the House.”
“It would definitely be a great night for Democrats if we can beat him this cycle,” Covey said.
Harvey casts Fitzpatrick as a rubber stamp on Trump and casts doubt on claims of bipartisanship. Fitzpatrick was one of only two Republicans to vote against the final version of the party’s signature 2025 tax and spending package, but he voted in favor of an earlier iteration in the House that sent the bill to the Senate and put it on a path to passage. Fitzpatrick said he supported the original draft of the bill but opposed the Medicaid cuts added in the Senate.
Mr. Harvey also criticized Mr. Fitzpatrick’s mixed record on tariffs. Fitzpatrick voted in favor of repealing President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, but he also had the support of most Republicans on a procedural vote that limited Congress’ ability to challenge some of the president’s tariffs. Fitzpatrick voted in favor of a controversial Trump-backed election bill called the Save America Act, which would require identification to vote and proof of citizenship to register to vote. And he supported controversial Republican immigration proposals and President Trump’s proposal to rename the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America.”
“When it comes to the economy of this country, people are suffering,” Harvey, a Bucks County native, told CNBC. “It’s a government that is completely disconnected from the people it’s supposed to serve. It’s never been so weak and isolated internationally…and it’s all the fault of Donald Trump and people like Brian Fitzpatrick who have allowed him to run amok.”
Fitzpatrick is still favored to win. But Pennsylvania-based Democratic strategist Britt Clampsey said Democrats have a stronger candidate in Harvey than in past cycles.
“Bob Harvey has deep ties to this community, from his time as a school teacher to his time in local government, and he truly represents this community,” Crampsey said. “He understands Bucks County and has a high profile.”
In addition to President Trump’s low popularity ratings and voters’ economic concerns, Fitzpatrick and other Pennsylvania Republicans will have to compete as front-runners against one of the most popular governors in the country. Shapiro is expected to easily win re-election, according to recent polls. Mr. Covey said Mr. Shapiro is expected to win by a double-digit margin in Mr. Fitzpatrick’s district.
There are three other close races in Pennsylvania that could decide control of the House. Two Republican incumbents, Rep. Ryan McKenzie of the 7th District and Rep. Scott Perry of the 10th District, are seeking re-election in a race dubbed “Lean D.” According to the Cook Report, Republican U.S. Rep. Rob Bresnahan in Pennsylvania’s 8th District is in a “close race.”
But Fitzpatrick pointed to the fact that Shapiro won nearly 55% of voters in the 2022 race, even though he won 59% of the vote in the district, as evidence that his voters are willing to split their ticket.
Independent polling on the race in this race is sparse, but a recent internal poll conducted by Global Strategy Group for Harvey’s campaign showed him and Mr. Fitzpatrick tied. A September poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the National Republican Congressional Committee and Fitzpatrick’s campaign showed the incumbent up 9 points. A poll released Sunday by The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College showed Mr. Harvey with a narrow lead over Mr. Fitzpatrick, 48% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error.
Recent external spending highlights the competitiveness situation.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent more than $1.5 million on TV ads in the district since early October, and House Democrats’ main super PAC has spent more than $7.5 million, according to data from AdImpact. Prior to this election, neither group had purchased any TV ads in the district since 2020.
Republicans are also putting effort into supporting Mr. Fitzpatrick. The House Republicans’ main super PACs, the Congressional Leadership Fund and NRCC, have spent just under $5 million and over $1 million, respectively, on ads in the district, according to AdImpact. And, according to an Oct. 12 FEC filing, President Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., recently purchased $100,000 in campaign ads opposing Mr. Harvey.
“This is how we know where his loyalties lie,” Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman Eugene DePasquale told CNBC. “Donald Trump and MAGA came out with $100,000 to bail him out because they know he will be loyal to them when the time comes.”
FEC filings show Mr. Fitzpatrick has a significant cash advantage, with a war chest of just over $709,000 as of Oct. 14, compared to Mr. Harvey’s cash on hand of just over $409,000.
Riley Richardson, a spokeswoman for the NRCC, pointed to the funding disparity, saying Harvey has had a “stalled campaign” and is at a “significant financial disadvantage.”
