Israel Election 2026: War, Security, and Coalition Calculation

Israeli voters will head to the polls on Tuesday for an election with cross-border implications.

It will be Israel’s first election since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which killed around 1,200 people and abducted more than 250. The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that more than 74,500 people had been killed in the ensuing Israeli military operation in Gaza. This is also the first vote since the US and Israel launched a joint war against Iran in February.

Israelis do not directly elect a prime minister, but instead vote for political parties, and the Knesset’s 120 seats are allocated using a proportional representation system. A party must win at least 3.25% of the national vote to enter parliament.

Because perfect majorities are rare, political parties usually form coalitions. The president asks members of parliament (usually the best leader to muster a majority of 61 seats) to form a government. If repeated attempts fail, another election can be called.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who heads the right-wing Likud party, returned to power in late 2022 with a coalition that included far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. Since then, the alliance has been strained by disputes over the Gaza ceasefire and the recruitment of ultra-Orthodox men.

Recent opinion polls have shown that both Netanyahu’s camp and the main opposition camp, led by centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, are short of the 61 seats needed to govern, meaning smaller parties could play a decisive role.

Arab parties are also running, but most of the major Jewish parties deny any collaboration with Arab parties. More than 20% of Israel’s population is Arab, but Arab parties rarely participate in coalition governments.

The impending vote is effectively a referendum on Netanyahu, and Hamas’ attacks have “transformed Israeli society,” said László Tsiksman, a Middle East expert at Corvinus University in Budapest in Hungary.

“Israel has been at war since October 7, 2023, and the so-called ‘Seven Fronts’ campaign launched by Prime Minister Netanyahu is definitely draining Israeli society,” he told CNBC. “The side that can best convince voters that it can protect its people is likely to win. Other issues in the campaign include compulsory military service, which is particularly sensitive to religious Jewish parties and the haredi community.”

Military service is compulsory for most Jewish, Druze, and Circassian Israelis over the age of 18, but most other Arab Israelis are exempt. The conscription of ultra-Orthodox men remains a major legal and political controversy.

The economic damage caused by the war is also a major issue, Sixman said.

“Because of the war and high military spending, economic issues also dominate political campaigns,” he told CNBC, noting that Israel currently spends about 8% of its gross domestic product on military spending. “Additionally, nearly every household has a soldier or reservist who has been called up and away from work for months.”

Daniel Schatz, a political scientist and former visiting fellow at Harvard, Stanford and Georgetown universities, said defense and security are also at the forefront of the election.

“The stakes for Israel include restoring trust in its government and determining how military power can lead to lasting security,” he told CNBC in an email. “The question for our neighbors and international partners is whether the next administration can translate battlefield gains into workable political deals.”

Schatz said Netanyahu’s supporters see the current prime minister as “an experienced leader confronting dire threats,” while his critics see a lack of preparation, accountability and strategic direction.

In September, an excerpt from a book published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz claimed that Prime Minister Netanyahu had been warned about a week before the October 7 attack that Hamas was planning a major attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly called these claims “completely false” and filed a defamation lawsuit against the newspaper.

But Schatz told CNBC that deep-seated dissatisfaction with Netanyahu should not be confused with support for the left.

“Some voters want different leadership precisely because they believe they can provide security more effectively.”

He added that a change in prime minister or coalition government is unlikely to result in a dramatic change in Israel’s position on a Palestinian state, Iran or other foreign policy issues.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party aims to maintain a free economy and financial markets, strengthen “Israel as a regional and technological power,” and operates on a manifesto that promises “uncompromising security.”

Eisenkot’s Yashar party says it wants to make Israel a “democratic, strong, progressive and secure” country and is focused on national security, including a proposed policy to integrate ultra-Orthodox and Arab communities into compulsory military service.

Farzan Sabet, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group think tank, told CNBC that the main blocs vying for power are “quite hawkish on security” and will pursue comparable policies in key areas, such as confronting Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

But he added that the new coalition, made up primarily of anti-Netanyahu bloc parties, “will probably prefer to review Israel’s strategy toward Tehran” before pursuing any major escalation.

The United States and Israel are reportedly developing plans to potentially attack Iran again after the November 3 midterm elections, while Iranian military commanders have said they are ready for an “asymmetric war.”

Eurasia’s Sabet added that the anti-Netanyahu alliance could become “more conciliatory on some issues,” such as military action in Gaza, especially if doing so improves relations with the United States and Israel’s international standing while meeting the country’s basic security needs.

He said a government made up primarily of an anti-Netanyahu coalition would likely reduce its actions in the West Bank, crack down on settler violence against Palestinians there and avoid annexing Palestinian land.

The West Bank is a Palestinian territory in the West Bank that has been home to expanding Israeli settlements for decades. In recent years, settler violence and forced displacement of Palestinians has drawn condemnation from lawmakers in the United States and abroad.

However, Sabet told CNBC: “Although the latest Israeli general election polls show Netanyahu’s opponents in the lead, it is a close race and several outcomes are possible.”