Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott (left) and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa.
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Political pundits are watching Tuesday’s Texas gubernatorial race for signs of a rebound in artificial intelligence data centers in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, with prediction market traders seeing the odds of a Democratic candidate pulling off an upset increasing.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, has a 60% chance of defeating Democratic U.S. Rep. Gina Hinojosa on Tuesday, Calci speculators say.
Hinojosa’s odds of winning have jumped from 8% in mid-July to 40% on Monday, but much of the increase has occurred in recent weeks as a series of polls show the race is getting tighter. At Polymarket, Hinojosa’s odds jumped from a low of 5% in late July to 39% on Monday.
The contract is settled using data from the Texas Secretary of State’s Office.
Odds and gambling platforms are not replacements for political polls, as they do not use the techniques used in traditional political polls.
Hinojosa is seeking to become Texas’ first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. He has used Mr. Abbott’s previous support for data center development in the state as an attack on the incumbent.
In November 2025, Abbott said Texas would become a “center for AI development” and touted Google’s $40 billion investment, which included bringing three new data center campuses to the state. But as voters’ opinion of data centers worsened over the past year, Mr. Abbott changed his tune.
In August, Mr. Abbott ordered an audit of data centers seeking to connect to the state’s power grid, and in September he suspended the approval of all data center-related permits until an audit of existing waiting lists was conducted.
Hinojosa is immediately suspending data center operations until Congress puts guardrails in place for the industry, according to his campaign website.
In-person early voting in Texas ended Friday, and more than 7.7 million Texans have already cast their votes.
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