Israel’s election results are scheduled to be certified on Wednesday, but negotiations remain stalled as both major blocs lack a parliamentary majority.
As it stands, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition secured 53 seats in the October 27 vote, while the self-proclaimed Zionist rebel coalition, led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, won 48 seats. A majority requires 61 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The remaining 19 seats were allocated to two Arab-led lists, the Joint List and Ra’am (United Arab List).
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Netanyahu’s camp has been accused of trying to delegitimize the results by making a series of claims that drastically discount that the vote for an Arab party, which achieved its best electoral performance in history, was manipulated by foreign interference.
Despite their historic performance, boosted by an unprecedented increase in voter turnout, the two Arab-led lists remain politically isolated. And while there are signs that they are prepared to support, or at least not oppose, the Eisenkot-led government, its support remains contentious within the opposition party — a broad and increasingly fractious alliance that also includes parties led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, the left-winger Yair Golan, and the right-winger Avigdor Liberman.
After Tuesday’s meeting, main opposition leaders issued a statement announcing they were preparing to “act immediately” to replace Prime Minister Netanyahu’s coalition government “with a national emergency government and put a clear majority in parliament into action.” However, the statement did not specify how a majority would be achieved, and ultimately it would depend on an alliance with an Arab-led list or one of the two ultra-Orthodox parties that have supported Prime Minister Netanyahu in exchange for protecting some members from military service.
“Basically we are on track to form a government in both countries, but we are a long way from forming a government,” Israeli pollster Mitchell Barak told Al Jazeera.
“It’s unclear who is talking to whom.”
It is widely reported that informal talks have begun, but formal talks on forming a coalition government will only begin after the results are certified on Wednesday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party has already discussed refusing to recognize the results, citing continued claims of fraud in the Arab vote. These charges are being investigated and ignored by the police, but a separate investigation by the internal security agency, the Shin Bet, is still ongoing.
Once the results are certified, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations with all political parties to determine which Knesset members (not necessarily party leaders) are in the best position to form a government.
Herzog, who lost to Netanyahu in a particularly bitter 2015 contest, has found himself in the unusual position of having to decide who should be given the first chance to form a government, while also considering the prime minister’s long-standing request for pardon in an ongoing corruption trial.
One option for Mr. Herzog is to ask Arab parties to endorse Mr. Eisenkot. If elected as leader of the centrist Yashar party, he would initially have 28 days to form a coalition government, which could be extended by 14 days. If unsuccessful, Herzog can encourage another candidate to try.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday claimed that Likud’s No. 1 ranking with 27 seats gave him the responsibility to lead the next government. “We aim to form a broad-based government with our partners and any other political parties that wish to participate as long as they do not support terrorism,” he said.
Still, he is unlikely to be able to command a majority unless he forges an alliance with the Arab parties he has consistently criticized, or there is a large wave of defections from the opposition.
Regardless of the status of negotiations, the new parliament is scheduled to take the oath of office on November 10th.
Barak said personal rivalry between Netanyahu and Herzog would further complicate already rocky negotiations, while coordination within the opposition appeared minimal.
“It’s not really clear who’s talking to whom,” he added.
“Earlier this week, they nominated[Bennett’s running mate]Lapid as speaker candidate, which was apparently news to both Eisenkot and Bennett. Similarly, Netanyahu must now appeal to his political rival Herzog to give him responsibility for forming a government and grant him pardon before he is convicted,” Barak continued.
“All the while, he has insisted that Arab parties are not considered legitimate partners in the government, making it almost impossible to form coalitions with them.”
transparent as mud
However, it remains unclear how successful efforts to delegitimize political parties in Arab countries will be. Mr. Raam was a key figure in the Bennett-Lapid coalition government in 2021-22, but it was the first time an independent Arab party had formally joined the Israeli government, and public pressure to do so was growing again.
Thousands of people rallied in Tel Aviv over the weekend, calling on Eisenkot to strike a deal with Arab parties, reflecting the overwhelming vote against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government. However, after a meeting between opposition leaders on Tuesday, Joint List officials told Al Jazeera that they did not expect to be invited as a coalition supporter anytime soon.
Instead, speculation has turned to the possibility that one of the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), especially the latter, may defect to the opposition and support Eisenkot.
Neither Shas nor UTJ have direct ties to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ruling coalition. Indeed, the coalition government’s withdrawal of support in parliament in May after failing to pass a bill exempting some ultra-Orthodox members from military service fundamentally weakened its parliamentary majority.
“There are rumors that the Ashkenazis (Jews who make up the majority of UTJ members) are ready to break with Netanyahu and go to Eisenkot,” political analyst Nimrod Fraschenberg told Al Jazeera.
“I’m skeptical, but it still falls short of an overall majority, so even if Ra’am gets support from outside the formal coalition, he will need support from one of the Arab parties,” he said of the parliamentary arithmetic.
Spoiler
But overshadowing everything are developments related to Israel’s deep and long-standing alliance with the United States.
Barak said the results of Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections risked upsetting the entire government-formation process, which could result in President Donald Trump, Israel’s biggest ally, being weakened or completely captured by a new war with Iran.
During the election campaign, Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular took pains to emphasize his relationship with President Trump, whose Republican Party faces stiff competition to maintain control of Congress.
Similarly, President Trump’s comments and the new build-up of US forces in the region could all signal the beginning of a new conflict with Israel’s regional nemesis, Iran.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot form a coalition,” Chatham House senior fellow Yossi Mekelberg told Al Jazeera. “It’s a matter of numbers, and he just doesn’t have the numbers. No amount of talking and planning can change the situation, but an emergency can happen. There is no more popular emergency in Israel than the one involving Iran.”
In such a case, a sitting prime minister could seek support from the opposition, but that would increase the likelihood of a former colonel dictating war policy to a former general, he speculated.
“However you want to define it, it is also possible that Israel could succeed in its war against Iran, leading to a surge in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s popularity by restarting coalition negotiations and (his) unnecessary calls for new elections,” Mekelberg said.
