Few contemporary governors have left a deeper mark on Florida’s character than Republican Ron DeSantis.
The 48-year-old politician overhauled the state’s political landscape over two terms, turning what was once a battleground state into a Republican stronghold.
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The Florida governor has also established himself as an important national figure in American politics. During the 2024 presidential election, he was considered one of the Republican Party’s main challengers to President Donald Trump.
DeSantis leaves office in January: term limits prevent him from running for governor a third time.
But experts believe his record as a hard-line Republican will determine the race to succeed him in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Congressman Byron Donald is campaigning to preserve Republican control of Florida’s governor’s mansion, but faces tougher-than-expected competition from centrist Democratic former Congressman David Jolly.
Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, told Al Jazeera: “Was[DeSantis’ position]meant to alienate some voters? It definitely did. We’ll see tomorrow if it’s enough to make a change.”
Dark horses dominate
Ten years ago, DeSantis wasn’t as well-known in the United States as he is today.
The Republican, former naval officer and three-term member of the U.S. House of Representatives wasn’t exactly a favorite for the governor’s chair when he first ran for office in 2018.
The race was close. Despite President Trump’s support, DeSantis edged out Democratic rival Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point.
At the time, Florida was a typical “purple” state, meaning it could lean either Republican or Democratic.
But under DeSantis’ leadership, the state has moved to the right. The last Democrat to win a statewide office in Florida was former Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, whose victory came eight years ago.
Since then, Florida’s Democratic Party has endured a recession, while Republican victory margins have widened.
For example, in the 2022 election, Mr. DeSantis won reelection by an overwhelming 19 points, the largest margin since 1982. He also became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate in 20 years to win Miami-Dade County, a Democratic stronghold.
By the time President Trump was re-elected in 2024, Florida had certainly developed a reputation as a red fortress.
Trump won a decisive 13.1-point victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the Florida presidential election that year, a far cry from the narrow 1.2-point margin he had in the 2016 election.
Republicans currently have an advantage over Democrats with 1.5 million registered voters in the state, according to the Florida Department of Elections.
This is a dramatic reversal from 2020, when Democrats had an advantage by at least 100,000 registered voters.
Many experts believe DeSantis is spearheading this enrollment surge. Republicans have been drawn to the state by Mr. DeSantis’ policies of low taxes, light regulation and a rejection of pandemic-era regulations.
Trump himself made the Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, his permanent home in 2019, and it is widely speculated that this was to take advantage of Florida’s tax incentives.
Right-hand model
Trump and DeSantis were once rivals in the 2024 Republican primary, but Jewett said the Florida governor helped shape the meaning of Trumpism, the president’s political movement.
DeSantis himself has touted Florida as a “blueprint for America’s revival.”
Under his leadership, Florida has joined President Trump’s immigration crackdown and sought to eliminate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts from public universities.
For example, in April 2022, he signed the Stop Wake Act, restricting how race and gender are taught in public schools by banning instruction that depicts any group as “inherently racist.”
Portions of the law were later repealed after supporters argued that they constituted censorship in violation of the First Amendment.
Other DeSantis-era laws, such as the Parental Rights in Education Act of 2022, curbed classroom instruction about sexual orientation and gender identity.
“These things are entrenched in Florida’s K-12 education system,” Jewett explained. “There’s not much the school board can do considering the governor has fired several people over policy disagreements.”
However, these laws had far-reaching effects throughout the United States.
Since then, states such as Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, and Iowa have pursued laws restricting how public schools address sexuality, gender identity, and race in the classroom.
Florida’s future after DeSantis
As Floridians head to the polls to choose DeSantis’ successor, Jewett said DeSantis will cast a long shadow over state and national politics for years to come.
“There are people who are for (DeSantis) and there are people who are against him, but from a neutral political science perspective, this man has had a huge impact, not just in Florida but across the country,” he said.
Republican Donald Trump has vowed to continue DeSantis’ style of politics, calling the outgoing leader “the best governor in the country.” During his time in the U.S. Congress, Donald even sponsored legislation that would limit how gender and race are taught, echoing DeSantis’ own legislative platform.
His challenger, Republican-turned-Democrat Jolie, has put affordability and health care at the center of her campaign, pitching herself as an alternative to “partisan politics.”
Jewett expects Donald to maintain many of DeSantis’ right-wing policies, but not necessarily replicate his approach on all topics, including black history.
The DeSantis administration has previously been accused of trying to cleanse education on slavery by denying Advanced Placement courses on African American history.
“Maybe he’ll soften up a little bit on racial issues (…),” Jewett said of Donald.
But he warned that Mr. Donald is likely “not going to be a progressive on these issues either.”
Meanwhile, it is unlikely that Mr. DeSantis will disappear from national politics.
“I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him,” Jewett said. He predicts that DeSantis “will definitely try to run for president again” in 2028.
