As President Donald Trump campaigned for the nation’s highest office in 2024, he regularly blamed Democrats for the country’s economic instability.
While campaigning across the country, Trump frequently asked voters, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” At the time, his message seemed to hit home. In an election centered on inflation and the cost of living, Trump won every swing state and the national popular vote.
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Two years later, voters focused on similar dinner-table issues took away much of the party’s strength in Washington and states across the country.
Democrats rode a historic blue wave in Tuesday’s midterm elections, upending everything from battleground congressional seats to long-held Republican governorships. Democrats will take control of both houses of Congress, ending the Republican Party’s trifecta in the federal government.
In a CNBC voter poll, nearly 9 in 10 voters said cost of living was an important or primary factor in their vote for Congress. Poll participants ranked the economy as the most important issue facing the country during the midterm elections, ahead of things like democracy and immigration. Three out of four survey participants rated the economy as “poor” or “not very good,” while just 2% said it was “very good.”
And perhaps most importantly, less than one in five voters said their family’s financial situation is better than it was two years ago.
Much of their dissatisfaction focused on Mr. Trump himself, with about two in three voters saying that his policies had worsened the country’s economic situation.
“It was all about the economy,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Most Americans are suffering from high inflation, have been for quite some time, and are just angry.”
“Breaking point”
Tuesday’s election unfolded against the backdrop of the war with Iran, which is politically unpopular and has exacerbated inflationary pressures facing ordinary Americans. Nearly three in four people said the war was an important or major factor in their vote for Congress, according to a CNBC voter poll.
President Trump told Fox News that even though voters generally agreed with the need for military action against Iran, they were probably unhappy with the rise in gas prices. Vice President J.D. Vance said on social media that some voters who supported him and Trump in 2024 likely supported Democrats in the midterm elections as a result of the war.
U.S. drivers paid an average of about $4.15 for a gallon of gas on Tuesday, the highest amount for a midterm or presidential election day since at least 2000, according to AAA. Gasoline prices have risen about 37% over the past year as the Middle East conflict has paralyzed global oil trade.
“The US has sent a very clear message,” said Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel price tracking platform. “Having an election at an all-time high on Election Day will lead to a lot of consumer dissatisfaction.”
Since the start of the Iran war, rising prices for gas and other energy products have cost the average U.S. household nearly $1,230, according to Zandi’s analysis. The economic pain felt by U.S. consumers as a result of the conflict has spilled over into other sectors. Higher borrowing costs and expanded military services will add more than $900 to household budgets, Zandi said.
The Consumer Price Index, a broad basket of goods and services tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, reaccelerated during the war with Iran. In recent months, consumer price increases have outpaced wage increases, reducing consumer purchasing power.
The price of diesel, the fuel used by truckers and trains, has soared to record levels, with transportation executives calling it “like science fiction.” The BLS said in its latest Producer Price Index report that rising diesel costs are pushing up prices for many commodities.
A CNBC voter poll found that more than three in five people believe President Trump’s policies have led to higher prices. Almost nine out of 10 people said they were very or somewhat concerned about the prices of a variety of goods, including utilities, food and oil. The poll, conducted in collaboration with multiple news organizations, was based on about 100,000 interviews conducted by phone, online and in person at polling stations, and had a margin of error of 0.6 percentage points.
President Trump inherited an economy emerging from the pandemic that was mired in a “vibe session,” a term used to describe deteriorating consumer confidence and a disconnect from the economy’s strong fundamentals. Consumer prices are currently running above the desired rate of inflation for the longest time on record, and the average American’s economic sentiment has worsened today.
The University of Michigan’s 2026 consumer sentiment survey has fallen to the worst level in the university’s 70-year history. Meanwhile, the Conference Board announced that its consumer confidence index fell to a 14-year low in September.
Francesco D’Accunto, a behavioral economics professor at Georgetown University, said inflation has pushed voters to a “breaking point.” “When consumers become angry voters, they vote against the status quo, in this case the Trump administration.”
unpopular policy
Before the United States went to war with Iran in late February, economists and financial policymakers were already sounding the alarm about the economic impact of President Trump’s policies.
President Trump’s plan to impose broad and expensive tariffs as a way to revive domestic manufacturing has rattled financial markets and raised the prospect of a potential recession. New York Fed researchers said many consumer prices would have fallen without President Trump’s tariffs, many of which were later reversed by the Supreme Court.
In a CNBC poll of voters, 64% said President Trump’s tariff policies are hurting their region’s economy. Only 14% said it helped them.
The Trump White House also oversaw mass deportations in major cities that resulted in large protests and the deaths of two Americans at the hands of federal immigration agents. A study by the University of Pennsylvania found that cities experiencing a surge in immigration saw an overall decline in foot traffic and billions of dollars in lost consumer spending.
About 3 in 5 voters say they think Immigration and Customs Enforcement is doing its job and the Trump administration is going too far on this issue, according to a CNBC voter poll. Still, voters were more likely to say the Republican Party is doing a better job on immigration.
To be sure, some policies under the Trump administration have been more popular. In October, the Internal Revenue Service announced that the average tax refund amount increased by 11% following the passage of President Trump’s “Big and Beautiful Bill.” The so-called Trump account allows parents to use government and donor funds to build a nest egg for their children.
But voters indicated Tuesday that affordability remains a key concern as the Iran war continues and inflation weighs on wallets. What has changed compared to the 2024 presidential election is who they believed could solve it.
In 2024, more voters believe Trump is better able to navigate the economy than former Vice President Kamala Harris. Voters this week said Democrats are better able to handle the economy than Republicans.
But the party will have a lot of work to do. Seven in 10 respondents to a CNBC voter poll said they felt the U.S. economic system generally favors the wealthy.
“We have a pretty clear idea of what makes Americans tick,” said Zandi, who has advised politicians of both parties. “There’s another election in two years. I hope policymakers listen to all of this.”
