Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long pitched himself as a leader who will maintain strong ties with the United States, the country’s most important ally. That perception was further strengthened by U.S. President Donald Trump’s endorsement of him in the run-up to last month’s Israeli parliamentary elections. That same year, Washington and Tel Aviv entered a joint war against Iran.
Then, the US midterm elections were held, and we saw a dismal performance by President Trump’s Republican Party. Early analyzes of why Republicans lost so badly focused in part on the war with Iran and the relationship between the United States and Israel. Both were emphasized by US Vice President J.D. Vance.
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Suddenly, the claim that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the secret sauce in US-Israel relations seems much weaker. In fact, one could argue that Prime Minister Netanyahu and his policies (which resulted in the genocidal war in Gaza, the Iran war, and numerous attacks across the country) have made Israel politically toxic in the United States.
Many Israelis now fear that the country can no longer rely on unquestioned support from the United States. And as Israel’s political leaders scramble to form a government after parliamentary elections, the opposition places the blame squarely at the feet of Prime Minister Netanyahu, arguing that this is another reason why he should not be allowed to form the next government.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, a member of the bloc seeking to oust Netanyahu, highlighted his ties to the U.S. Congressman in a social media post. He added that he believes American voters are less against Israel and “against extremist ministers who say crazy things. They’re against settler violence. They’re against a government they don’t understand. They’re mainly against Netanyahu. For them, anything associated with him is harmful.”
Another opposition leader, Avigdor Liberman, echoed what many in Israel are said to suspect: that President Trump’s Election Day announcement to end U.S. military aid to Israel was made in exchange for support for the prime minister. “The cost of President Trump’s support for Netanyahu is $3.8 billion a year,” Lieberman wrote on social media.
“The defense budget, which already accounts for 7% of GDP, will have to increase because the US has stopped the money it has been funneling to Israel for years. Israelis will feel good about that, but then they become a rogue state and cannot expect things to continue as they were before,” said Aaron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teacher fellow at King’s College London. “In Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu continues his good performance and antagonizes one segment of the population with another. He is now trying to delegitimize the Arabs by saying they stole the election in order to prevent the rebels from partnering with them.”
No substantive change
Following the Israeli general election held on October 27, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc gained 53 seats, eight seats short of the 61 needed to form a government.
The opposition coalition led by former army chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot won 48 seats, while the Arab-led parties United Arab List (Ra’am) and Joint List won 19 seats. All Arab-led parties have announced their support for Eisenkot as prime minister.
Mr. Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have rejected proposals for a unity government with Mr. Netanyahu, leaving Mr. Netanyahu with no clear path to a majority.
Israeli President Isaac Herzog is now expected to nominate politicians to form a government, but he has not yet done so.
As it stands, Eisenkot’s self-proclaimed Zionist Union, which has so far ruled out cooperating with Arab-led parties, stands to benefit from support from outside the government, despite Netanyahu’s attacks.
Mr. Eisenkot’s chances increased Thursday when Netanyahu’s longtime ultra-Orthodox ally, United Torah Judaism (UTJ), refused to recommend Mr. Eisenkot or anyone else to form a government for the first time since 2009, an apparent defection that both emboldened the opposition and weakened the prime minister’s position.
However, just because Mr. Eisenkot replaces Mr. Netanyahu as Israel’s prime minister, it does not necessarily mean that he will be able to reverse Israel’s decline in popularity in the United States. Shibley Telhami, director of Key Issues polling at the University of Maryland, said a Pew Research Center poll in April suggests that American public attitudes are as negative toward Israel as they are toward Netanyahu.
“Our own polling shows that most Americans would not change their view of Israel even if there was a new government without Prime Minister Netanyahu,” Telhami said. “Any government in Israel will go against the growing tide of public opinion…I don’t think any government in Israel will be able to restore relations to where they were five years ago.”
