Hours after results confirmed that Republicans lost control of both the House and Senate in this week’s midterm elections, Republican leaders were grappling with what went terribly wrong and whether a major course correction is needed going forward.
When former Republican strongholds like Texas fell to their enemies, US Vice President J.D. Vance declared to X: “The real reason we lost is clear to almost everyone.”
Recommended stories
list of 3 itemsend of list
“We lost the war. The president himself said it last night. If you want to argue that it was worth it, that it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, do it. Argue that it was a price worth paying. Whether you agree or disagree, at least that’s the honest truth,” Vance said.
People who voted for former President Trump reportedly switched sides over the Iran war and US-Israel relations.
The elephant in the room was no longer there.
“I remain hopeful for this country. To those who get angry and want to say ‘I told you so.’ You’re right, you told us so. Use that energy to elect Republicans who share your worldview,” he wrote.
poisoned chalice
Days after the United States and Israel launched attacks across Iran on February 28, the Iranian government effectively closed off the crucial Strait of Hormuz, through which about 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade once passed, triggering a massive spike in oil prices and a massive global energy crisis. The price of Brent crude oil, the world benchmark, reached $120 in March and April and has hovered around $115 in recent weeks.
On Thursday morning, after weeks of speculation, oil prices fell to $93.82 a barrel on hopes that a Republican loss would make it less likely that U.S. President Donald Trump would renew attacks on Iran.
But as American consumers struggle with soaring gasoline and diesel prices, not to mention soaring food prices due in part to President Trump’s trade tariffs, and the Trump brand looks increasingly toxic, the midterm elections are forcing a reconsideration of leadership.
No Republican has announced a run for president in 2028, but some within the party are believed to be aiming to do so now.
Andrew Payne of the Chatham House think tank told Al Jazeera that Republicans who want to contest the 2028 election now need to “distance themselves from the more unpopular aspects of President Trump’s record.” It represents the biggest poisoned chalice of the Iran war.
“I think that’s why Mr. Vance has made his responsibility for the war so clear and public. It’s clear to anyone paying attention that he’s always been the voice of skepticism behind the scenes, and now he needs to make that difference clear to the average voter. But it’s going to be very difficult to do that while Mr. Trump is still in office and wants to play an active role, perhaps as a kingmaker,” Payne said.
Not as popular, but not as popular as Trump.
The most obvious candidate and front-runner for the 2028 Republican nomination is currently Mr. Vance, who is known to have ambitions to succeed Mr. Trump.
Vance is considered an anti-American interventionist and publicly supports Trump’s war on Iran, while privately pleading with Trump and others to end the conflict, according to US news agency Axios.
Last week, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, suggesting that U.S. and Iranian officials meet soon to prevent further escalation. By contrast, President Trump said this week that the war will only end “when I want it.”
This move, coupled with Wednesday night’s post on X, increases the view that Vance is putting as much distance between himself and the war as possible.
But one of Vance’s allies close to the White House, who spoke to Politico on Wednesday, said shedding Trump’s touch may be harder than he thinks. The person said it is possible for him to differentiate himself from Trump to a reasonable degree, but there is no way to completely dissociate himself from Trump.
“He’s still Trump’s vice president. This is still a war between the Trump administrations. Both are still unpopular. Not as much as Trump, but unpopular,” said the anonymous source.
A New York Times poll on Tuesday showed Mr. Vance with 40% of the votes as to who has a theoretical lead in the Republican presidential primary. Secretary of State Marco Rubio follows with 21%, followed by Donald Trump Jr. with 21%.
Mr. Rubio has yet to comment on the annihilation of the Republican Party. Still, like Vance, he is allied with the Trump administration, which could make the presidential race difficult.
Payne said potential candidates are now faced with a choice of two routes. One is to “reinvigorate the (Make America Great Again, MAGA) movement, which we expect will be difficult because Mr. Trump has done it through sheer force of personality that is difficult to imitate.”
“The second path is to retain as much of the base as possible and thereby expand the coalition while appealing to the traditional conservative groups that have left the party over the past decade. If he were to run, I think Marco Rubio has a better chance of doing that,” Payne said.
“Blue Tsunami”
There are other candidates to consider.
Ted Cruz, who was a front-runner in the 2016 presidential election when Trump first took office, is now Texas’ only statewide Republican lawmaker.
“2026 wasn’t just a blue wave, it was a blue tsunami. It was a shocking event,” Cruz wrote in a post on X after the results.
“Food is too expensive, gas is too expensive, diesel is too expensive, insurance is too expensive, life is too expensive. Tariffs have made everything too expensive, and the Iran war has lasted too long. It was short, decisive, and should have ended,” Cruz wrote.
“People are understandably outraged, and elected Republicans have failed to adequately address their real pain. So what do we do now? We need to listen and respond. We need to defend economic policies that make a real difference in the lives of working people, and we need to deal with the consequences.”
In September, the Wall Street Journal reported that Mr. Cruz was running a test run for the 2028 nomination. But as one of the early cheerleaders of the Iran war, Mr. Cruz will have a hard time distancing himself from it beyond criticizing the way the war is being waged.
As the blame game continues, Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis described the midterm election results as a “near extinction event” for his party.
“If the Republican Party doesn’t anchor Texas, it won’t be able to survive nationally,” he said.
“We’re in a very unstable political time. Things are changing rapidly and our leaders needed to recognize that.”
Mr. DeSantis’ term as governor ends in January after two terms, but the field remains wide open, leading to speculation that Mr. DeSantis may also want to enter the race for the U.S. presidential nomination.
