Vice President J.D. Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republicans’ crushing defeat in Tuesday’s midterm elections, in which Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress.
“The reason we lost is the war. The President himself said so last night,” Vance wrote in a lengthy post on Wednesday’s X.
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Sen. Ted Cruz, a longtime Iran hawk, also condemned the conflict on Wednesday’s podcast episode, saying it “should have been short and decisive.”
President Donald Trump insisted this week that he has no regrets. “I did the right thing, and I would have done it again,” he told the Wall Street Journal about starting a war against Iran alongside Israel in February.
So why are Trump’s allies falling out of ranks and what does that mean for the war? Here’s what you need to know.
What are Trump’s allies saying?
Vance, a likely 2028 presidential candidate and heir to Trump’s Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, questioned whether the war was worth the political cost.
“If you want to argue that it was worth it, that it was worth losing the Senate for the next six years, then do it,” he wrote.
Vance, citing anonymous pollsters, said that among Americans who voted for Trump in 2024 but plan to vote Democratic this year, two of the top four responses given ahead of this week’s midterm elections were an end to the Iran war and “a change in the relationship with Israel.”
Mr. Cruz’s criticism came from a different direction. In a post to
He was apparently referring to a June memorandum signed by Washington and the Iranian government that included a $300 billion fund to help rebuild Iran after the war, among several topics to be discussed in broader peace talks. The fund proposal sparked fierce opposition from conservative lawmakers, including Mr. Cruz, who argued it would represent a huge payout for the Iranian regime.
However, the June agreement that provided for a ceasefire at the time quickly fell apart.
President Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that Vance’s assessment was “mostly true” and blamed high fuel prices as a result of the war for Americans to rebel against his party. But the president insisted that war was necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Why do they distance themselves?
The Republican Party is gearing up for a presidential election in 2028, but Trump will be unable to run because he will serve a maximum of two terms.
Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera there was “a huge internal division within the Republican Party” over the war.
The US decision to attack Iran triggered a global fuel crisis due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, costing US taxpayers an estimated $47 billion to date. This means that candidates in 2028 will likely need to distance themselves from war if they have any hope of winning.
But Musgrave said hawks like Cruz and the late Sen. Lindsey Graham have actually been pushing for war against Iran for a long time. Now that they’ve got it, “it’s been a disaster for them internationally and domestically,” but “they can’t walk away from it,” he said. Instead, they are limited to criticizing its length and execution.
But Mr. Vance is “trying to represent a more isolationist position in the Republican Party, pulling back from war and perhaps other commitments in order to win the support of a large portion of Trump’s base,” Mr. Musgrave said.
“This is all about positioning for 2028 and the future of the Republican Party,” he said.
Former Republican Congressional staffer John Feely told Al Jazeera that the Iran war was a “big part” of the defeat, along with energy prices, health care and corruption. He said the race to succeed President Trump has already begun, pointing to Vance and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
What can Democrats do to make the most of this?
Limiting the funds available to continue the war and putting pressure on the people who run the war.
“This war has to end,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday, pointing to Congress’ mismanagement of funds.
“The founding fathers had the power of the purse as one of the ways to deter presidents from going to war without the consent of the American people,” he said at a news conference in Washington, D.C.
Congressman Ro Khanna proposed a continuing resolution that would “prohibit financing of any U.S. military combat operations in Iran” and end the war “as we did with Vietnam.”
Mr Musgrave said spending would be a “key tool”, especially given the “havoc wreaked on the defense budget by the rapidly increasing costs of the war in Iran”.
Meanwhile, Feeley noted that both the defense budget and debt ceiling extension will need bipartisan support to pass.
Mr. Musgrave said formal hearings and investigations, which Democrats now wield significantly more power with control of both chambers of Congress, “could make the war unpopular and could harass or force some key figures out of office.”
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is also leading the charge. Outgoing Republican Sen. Thom Tillis told CBS News that Hegseth would face “reckoning” for his role in the Iran war, while Democratic Rep. Jason Crow accused the defense secretary of being “incompetent and corrupt.”
But Musgrave warned that the bigger fight is likely to be over the Trump administration’s failure to abide by Congressional spending limits. “I expect there will be more fights over the War Powers Act than there are fights over the War Powers Act,” he said, referring to a law that requires presidents to get Congress’ authorization before starting wars overseas, a law that many presidents have managed to circumvent in the past.
Is America still preparing for war?
Yes, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and Qatar-led mediation negotiations.
On Tuesday, following a vote by the American people, US forces attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, the first attack on the island since June. U.S. officials described the attack as “defensive.”
U.S. media also reported, citing officials, that the military’s Central Command was preparing for an attack that could begin as early as Wednesday, when three U.S. aircraft carriers enter the area.
Giorgio Cafiero, CEO of Gulf State Analytics, said President Trump “prides himself on keeping everyone guessing, including the Iranians.”
With the midterm elections coming up, “Trump may decide he has nothing to lose and choose to significantly escalate this crisis,” Cafiero told Al Jazeera.
He pointed out that the Democratic Party “won’t even be in power until January 2027.” “So perhaps President Trump will see the coming months as an opportunity to act very aggressively against Tehran.”
The Iranian government has already promised to respond to any attack.
Diplomacy is also progressing in parallel.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesman Majid Al-Ansari said the United States and Iran “remain committed to the negotiation process,” but Iran said the latest U.S. response to Iran’s conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz was “unconvincing.”
Cafiero said the Doha mediation “can only succeed if there is a willingness on both sides to compromise on core issues.” He added: “Israel will do everything in its power to undermine any diplomatic agreement that Qatar may ultimately help facilitate.”
Trump told the Financial Times on election night that he had no immediate plans to order another attack.
