The uncalled Senate race in Mississippi could deliver one of the biggest shocks in a midterm election cycle already filled with surprising defeats for Republican candidates.
Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith is chasing Democratic challenger Scott Colom in an unusually close race in normally deep red Mississippi. According to the Associated Press, Mr. Colom received 49.04% of the total votes counted, compared to 48.85% for Mr. Hyde-Smith, an estimated vote share of more than 95%.
Colom’s narrow lead widened slightly late Thursday afternoon, with 1,813 votes cast out of 951,744 total as of 6:17 p.m. ET, according to the Associated Press. Independent candidate Ty Pinkins received 20,007 votes, or 2.1% of the total vote.
Final results may not be available until next week, as more ballots may still arrive and be counted.
Mississippi’s election procedures do not provide for automatic recounts.
“I never thought it would be this close,” said Brian Anderson, a political science professor at Mississippi Women’s University in Columbus.
Before the election, Anderson said he thought Colom, the 43-year-old district attorney, could lose by just 3 to 4 percentage points, which would be a very solid performance in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982.
“I’m even more surprised” now that Colom has a chance to win, Anderson said.
If Mr. Colom defeats Mr. Hyde-Smith, 67, he will become the first black senator from Mississippi since the post-Civil War Reconstruction era.
“Democrats are having a hard time building a pipeline of candidates here,” Anderson said. Colom’s victory “will energize the Democratic Party in a way we haven’t seen before,” he said.
Neither candidate’s campaign immediately responded to requests for comment from CNBC.
“Cindy Hyde-Smith will represent Mississippi in the United States Senate for the next six years,” Hyde-Smith’s X account said in a post Thursday afternoon.
“We believe there are thousands of votes yet to be counted from dozens of Republican counties, and we are confident that these votes will strengthen her path to victory,” the post said. “Election officials are continuing their normal process of counting outstanding ballots, including absentee ballots. They must allow time to complete that work and ensure that all legal ballots are accurately counted and that every Mississippian’s voice is heard.”
He added, “We expect Democratic attorneys to do their best, and we are ready. Our focus is on completing the count and returning Cindy Hyde-Smith to the Senate to continue fighting for Mississippi’s values.”
Also on Thursday, the Republican National Committee sent out a mass text message to subscribers asking for $25 donations, citing the ultra-close race in Mississippi and saying Hyde-Smith needs help overseeing vote screening.
“Mississippi is our firewall and this race is our front in the sand,” the message said.
Ironically, if Colom wins, his victory could be attributed in part to actions taken by two Republicans: President Donald Trump and Hyde-Smith himself.
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a Trump appointee, wrote the court’s 5-4 decision in June, upholding a Mississippi law that allows mail-in absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received within five business days.
These votes could give Colom the margin of victory. It is estimated that there are 10,000 to 15,000 provisional ballots that require verification of voting eligibility.
“Democratic voters tend to mail their ballots later, on average, than Republican voters, resulting in late-arriving ballots favoring Democratic candidates,” lawyers for the Republican National Committee wrote in a brief to the Supreme Court, arguing that federal law prohibits counting votes received after Election Day.
At the time of the Supreme Court’s decision, President Trump called it a “huge loss” for voter rights.
Hyde-Smith was appointed to the Senate in 2018 following the resignation of Thad Cochran and won a special election to the Senate later that year. She was elected to a full term in 2020.
In 2023, she effectively blocked then-President Joe Biden’s nomination of Colom to a federal judgeship in the Northern District of Mississippi. Colom’s nomination had the support of Mississippi’s other Republican senator, Roger Wicker, and two former Republican governors.
Hyde-Smith said he opposed Colom’s nomination for reasons including Colom’s alleged support for transgender students participating in women’s sports and that his campaign for district attorney reportedly received funding from billionaire George Soros.
In a letter to Hyde-Smith dated April 10, 2023, Colom said he did not know that Soros had donated to a political action committee supporting his campaign until a newspaper in his hometown reported it. He also wrote that he did not understand why Hyde-Smith suggested she was “opposed to legislation that would protect female athletes.”
Colom concluded his letter by promising to follow the law, not his personal views on public policy, if confirmed as a judge.
“I would appreciate it if you would reconsider your thoughts about my nomination,” he wrote.
Hyde-Smith did not reconsider his views and maintained his block on the nomination.
Colom has announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for Senate in September 2025, and recently told CNN, “Not having a federal judgeship is not a motivator for me to run at all.”
Anderson said Hyde-Smith ran a “low-profile campaign,” at least compared to Colom, focusing on voters traditionally expected to support her.
Hyde-Smith repeatedly refused to discuss Colom.
Colom “knows how to talk about people’s interests, and Hyde-Smith is values-oriented, which is great for a lot of people, but right now it’s all about profits,” Anderson said.
Those interests include concerns about affordability, the Iran war, and corruption.
Colom “brings all of that to the table,” Anderson said.
Anderson noted that Colom’s campaign pounced on remarks made by Hyde-Smith in a Feb. 22 interview with a local television station.
In an interview, Hyde-Smith responded to a question about rising beef prices by saying, “You know, there’s a lot of protein options.”
Colom’s campaign featured a video clip of Hyde-Smith’s remarks in an ad featuring people reacting in disbelief to the proposal.
“Would you choose another protein?” one woman says in the ad. “She’s really lost her mind. I’d rather choose another senator.”
