A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter by Robert Frank, a weekly guide for high-net-worth investors and consumers. Sign up to receive future editions directly to your inbox.
More than a third of condos sold in Manhattan over the past year sold at a loss, while the top end of the market fared well, according to a new report.
Despite a steady stream of headlines about shocking Manhattan real estate sales and soaring prices, the median price per square foot of condos in Manhattan is about the same as it was a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. According to the report, from July 2024 to June 2025, one in three condominium resales were sold at a loss. Real estate analysts say condo sellers’ losses are likely to be even higher when factors such as inflation, transaction costs and renovations are factored in.
The data doesn’t include co-ops, but analysts say co-ops are generally priced at or slightly worse than condos.
“Over the past 10 years, Manhattan has basically been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraisal and research firm Miller Samuel.
Manhattan’s long-term price slump stands in stark contrast to much of the country, where home prices have risen significantly since the pandemic, sparking a widespread affordability crisis. According to Redfin, only 2% of home sellers nationwide who bought homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss.
Manhattan remains one of the most expensive markets in the country, especially in terms of price per square foot. The median sales price in Manhattan in the third quarter was $1.2 million, and the average was just under $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. However, over the long term, resale analyzes have found that the timing of purchases in Manhattan is usually more important than location.
Condo owners who bought before 2010 fared best. Among this group, the median gain for those who sold in the past year was between 29% and 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices started rising after the financial crisis and peaked in 2016. So for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, the gain on sale over the past year was small, about 11%.
The biggest losses were among those who bought after 2016. Half of buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss during the study period. While those who bought between 2021 and 2024 saw modest gains, some buyers who secured deals during the depths of the coronavirus economic downturn in late 2020 and early 2021 may be in a better position.
Add in the other costs of buying, selling, and owning, and your losses are compounded. Trading costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements do not count as losses, nor do maintenance costs or taxes. Adjusting for inflation increases losses and reduces returns.
Stein van Neuerburg, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business, said inflation has risen 36% over the past decade.
“So if you invested in a Manhattan condo in September 2015 (near the peak) and sold it in August 2025 for the same nominal price and a nominal return of 0%, you would have lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising because many people think of real estate as a good inflation hedge.”
He noted that the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 89% over the 10-year period from September 2015 to August 2025, “much better than New York City and much higher than inflation, which was 36%.”
There are various reasons why Manhattan apartment prices experienced a “lost decade” and are debated. State and local tax deduction caps that began in 2018 put pressure on prices and demand, as did the 2019 rent law. Although the population and demand quickly recovered, the migration of some high-income people to Florida during the coronavirus pandemic also increased concerns about real estate.
The only exception to this trend was at the top of the market. People who bought and sold apartments for $10 million or more made double-digit profits, regardless of when they first bought them.
Brokers and analysts say a growing concentration of wealth at the top, a rising stock market and continued demand from those less susceptible to economic and market cycles are driving the continued rise in the luxury goods market.
“For the last 10 years, high-end products, especially those in the top 4% of the market, have done better,” Miller said. “The reason is Wall Street and the financial markets, and you can buy it with cash regardless of the interest rate.”
Two-thirds of apartment transactions in the third quarter were done in cash, far above the historical average of about 53% and showing that the Manhattan market continues to rely on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages, Miller said.
In a market that sees frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current rally presents opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
“I’m bullish on New York real estate and have a very positive outlook,” said Jared Antin, executive director of Brown Harris Stevens and co-author of the report. “Some people may have lost money on this trade (over the 10 years), but the losses were minimal. That speaks to the nature of the blue-chip in the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money on their real estate? Absolutely. But this market is incredibly stable.”
Antin said sellers who bought during the selloff in 2020 and early 2021 could also profit if they start selling.
Still, with median prices hovering near all-time highs and uncertainty surrounding the next mayoral election, many prospective buyers prefer to wait and see and rent, even if they can afford to buy. According to a report from RentCafe, the number of New York City households with annual incomes of $1 million or more and renters more than doubled to 5,661 between 2019 and 2023.
Additionally, the number of contracts for luxury apartments priced at $4 million or more fell 39% in September, following increases in August and July, according to Olshan Realty. Brokers are blaming rapidly declining inventory and a lack of new supply from condo developments, rather than declining demand or concerns about Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamdani becoming New York’s next mayor.
“There are certainly downside risks to policy,” Miller said. “But as we’ve seen in the past, those fears are usually overblown.”
