Seven out of 10 climate researchers expect China’s carbon dioxide emissions to peak by the end of 2020, according to the survey.
Published November 6, 2025
China’s carbon emissions are expected to peak later than previously predicted, a study by climate experts has found.
Only one in five experts surveyed believes China’s emissions have already peaked or will peak this year, the fourth edition of China’s climate change outlook released on Thursday revealed.
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According to the survey, seven in 10 experts said they expected emissions to peak by the end of this decade, with most respondents choosing 2028 as the year most likely to peak.
In the 2024 survey, 44% of respondents said they expected emissions to peak in 2025 or earlier.
The study is conducted annually by the Energy and Clean Air Research Center and the International Energy Transition Research Association, based in Helsinki, Finland, and Sydney, Australia, respectively.
For this year’s edition, we surveyed 68 climate analysts across universities, government departments, and the energy and sustainable development sectors.
As China is the single largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China’s climate policies are attracting attention around the world.
The Chinese government’s climate policy has taken on particular importance in light of President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement in January.
The agreement, adopted by 194 countries and the European Union in 2015, calls for limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
In September, China announced it would cut emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, setting a full reduction target for the first time.
Climate experts say China’s goals fall far short of the actions needed to avert catastrophic climate change, but many analysts believe the country is likely to exceed them.
More than two-thirds of respondents in Thursday’s survey said they expected China to meet its emissions reduction targets “slightly” or “significantly.”
