The US importers are: target to walmartthe Trump administration launched an insurance claims portal on Monday seeking more than $160 billion in tariff refunds following a February Supreme Court ruling.
Hopes are high that the program will start smoothly, but companies and Wall Street analysts have tempered expectations that companies will issue refunds quickly.
Trade lawyers have warned of bureaucratic hurdles, legal vulnerabilities and the possibility of a last-minute appeal by the Trump administration.
“(Importers) are pessimistic that the government will make this easier. They expect the government to make it as difficult as possible to get refunds,” said Matthew Seligman, chief trade attorney at Greyhawk Law.
“The Supreme Court has already ruled that these tariffs are illegal, so dissatisfaction is growing,” he added.
Customs refund claim portal opens on Monday
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on Monday plans to launch a customs claim filing portal known as Consolidated Control and Entry Processing (CAPE).
CBP says importers can submit returns to the system for duties paid under President Trump’s now-defunct emergency tariff authority and can then expect to receive “one consolidated refund amount.” According to program documents, refund requests must be verified multiple times.
“The idea is that every importer who was affected and paid the duty, whether it’s Walmart or the local mom-and-pop store down the street, should be able to take advantage of this system…Their explanation makes it sound like it’s much more convenient than we expected,” said Stephen Reisinger, a partner at law firm Norton Rose Fulbright.
“There’s a lot of pessimism in the import community about whether this really works as described,” he said.
Retailers required to refund large sums of money
Wall Street analysts are predicting huge refunds to blue-chip retailers.
According to Citi’s April 10 analysis: walmart A payment of $10.2 billion is scheduled. target 2.2 billion will be paid; nike You might get your $1 billion back. You can also expect a refund kohls For $550 million, gap $400 million, and Macy’s The company found that amount to be $320 million.
Retailers could be in line for hefty tariff refunds
Source: City
Refunds are unlikely to factor into much forward guidance from equity research teams, but in principle they could provide a temporary boost to balance sheets in coming quarters or be used for stock buybacks or debt payments.
“When asked what they would do with the proceeds from the refund, most executives said something along the lines of… ‘If we receive a refund, we will consider all options in terms of what to do with the cash, including business needs, stock buybacks, debt repayments, or increasing the cash cushion on the balance sheet,'” Citi equity researchers wrote in a note.
Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey said he did not expect refunds to be processed immediately.
“It seems very complicated and by extension it probably won’t happen anytime soon,” he said at the JPMorgan Retail Roundup on April 8. “If there’s an opportunity to get a refund, we’ll certainly take advantage of it, but we don’t know yet when that will be.”
If the refund arrives on time, it could be reflected in the company’s finances.
“From an accounting standpoint, it would be recognized as revenue. So when you should get that reimbursement, it’s in the (profit and loss) profit line,” Rainey said.
But trade lawyers said the refunds could pose legal vulnerabilities for businesses requesting them. This is because many companies avoided cost increases and the overall level of consumer prices rose.
A January analysis by Harvard Business School’s Pricing Lab found that retail tariff pass-through would contribute “approximately 0.76 percentage points to the All-Item Consumer Price Index through October 2025.”
“If (a company) receives a refund, what are the chances that (a company) will be sued by a direct or indirect customer?” Reisinger said.
Are additional tariffs planned?
Administration officials have taken a punitive approach to restoring tariff levels through legal means other than emergency authorities. Under consideration are Section 301 tariffs, which are used to target “discriminatory” or “unfair” trade practices by U.S. trading partners.
“Despite the Supreme Court setback on tariff policy, we have conducted or are conducting Section 301 studies, so tariffs could return to previous levels by early July,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at a Wall Street Journal event last week, Bloomberg reported.
Importers say they are concerned about future Section 301 tariffs.
“We’re really concerned about that,” Eugene Rainey, president of the American Exporters and Importers Association, told CNBC on Thursday. “But even if we go ahead with it, I don’t think it would reach the level of the (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) IEEPA tariffs.”
The White House, Treasury Department, and Office of the U.S. Trade Representative did not respond to CNBC’s questions about further application of Section 301 tariffs.
