SHENZHEN, CHINA – AUGUST 30: A man stands by the water overlooking the MSC and Ocean Network Express (ONE) container ships moored under a gantry crane at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China, on August 30, 2026.
Chen Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images
U.S. companies increased orders for Chinese goods in the weeks leading up to this week’s high-stakes summit as they brace for continued stability between the world’s two largest economies.
China Beige Book, a New York-based research firm that surveyed 1,295 Chinese companies from Sept. 1 to 22, said the jump in orders was a “surprise” and that shipments to the U.S. had increased on both an annual and monthly basis “as China’s relative tariff position improved.”
According to the report, the index measuring orders from the U.S. (calculated by subtracting the share reporting a decline from the percentage of surveyed companies reporting an increase) jumped to 13 companies in September, up from minus 12 companies a year earlier and three companies in August.
Still, China’s overall domestic and export orders remained below year-ago levels, with new orders declining since August, the report showed.
The increase in U.S. orders comes as companies brace for a more friendly outcome from the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is in Washington this week on his first state visit in more than a decade.
The two countries agreed to lower tariffs, end restrictions on rare earth exports and extend a two-month trade ceasefire until January, suspending increases in port fees for ships.
The United States also reportedly plans to postpone threatened tariffs related to industrial overcapacity until at least after this week’s summit, easing near-term pressure on Chinese exporters.
The effective U.S. tariff on Chinese goods is about 23%, still significantly higher than the average tariff the U.S. imposes on other major trading partners, according to Barclays.
The export order figures are in line with recent official data showing China’s ports had their busiest week on record in the run-up to the summit, another sign that trade flows are picking up amid hopes of a further thaw in bilateral relations.
Following the extension of the ceasefire, the Eurasia Group has raised the likelihood that bilateral relations will remain stable to the highest level since President Trump returned. The longer-than-expected extension of the ceasefire also makes it unlikely that tensions will flare up again, the consultancy said.
“Both governments are not interested in new escalation,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, predicting that both countries will seek short-term commitments from each other to maintain fragile stability.
Wang said the U.S. government is likely to seek further progress on China’s expedited approval of rare earth export licenses for U.S. end users and expanded purchases of U.S. agricultural products, and in return Beijing would expect the White House to maintain the current moratorium on arms sales to Taiwan.
The two leaders are scheduled to meet again at the APEC summit to be held in Shenzhen in November, and there is also a possibility that they will meet on the sidelines of the G20 summit to be hosted by the United States in Miami in December. There are no confirmed plans for bilateral talks after this week’s summit.
