Official data released on Monday showed that China’s imports and exports surged more than expected in October, while the surplus narrowed significantly and was lower than expected.
Goods exports rose 35.2% last month compared to the same month a year earlier, beating the 33.5% increase expected in a Reuters poll, but slowing from September’s 36.3% increase.
Customs data showed imports rose 41.6% last month, a jump from 31% in September and well above the 32% rise expected by analysts polled by Reuters.
The surplus fell to $105.3 billion in October, the lowest level since April, according to LSEG data. The surplus since the beginning of the year was $1.04 trillion, and the record high for the full year of 2025 was $1.2 trillion. Trade partners are increasingly calling on the Chinese government to expand domestic demand and balance the economy.
Strong exports have allowed policymakers to continue relying on modest policy support to meet the country’s annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%. Household spending remained weak and retail sales rose by a modest 1.1% in September, highlighting imbalances in the world’s second-largest economy.
Much of the export surge reflects strong demand for the company’s chips and other artificial intelligence-related hardware. However, if global AI development slows, there is a risk that momentum will weaken and squeeze margins for Chinese exporters.
A separate study by China Beige Book showed that domestic and export new product orders slowed in October compared to the same month last year. Official PMI data showed factory activity also unexpectedly contracted last month as orders from overseas cooled. “The strong aspects of the economy have weakened,” the New York-based research firm said in an Oct. 30 report.
In September, the U.S. and Chinese governments agreed to extend a broad trade ceasefire by two months until January, as well as a number of other trade measures, including exemptions from export restrictions on certain critical minerals and special port fees for each other’s ships.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet for the third time this year at the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, next week.
The European Union also reached an agreement with China last month to limit imports of Chinese-made hybrid cars over the next few years as part of efforts to reduce its trade deficit with China. But analysts say the measures, which take effect on December 1, will do little to curb China’s export boom.
Brad Setzer, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the annual import cap of 350,000 cars is more than the 300,000 hybrid cars China exported to Europe last year, but well below the 800,000-car annualized pace over the past three months.
“Europe is still far from having a coherent trade and industrial policy for autos, much less a coherent economic policy for trade with China in general,” said Setzer, a former U.S. Treasury official who specializes in global trade and capital flows.
