Despite “some disagreements remaining,” Trump declared his team had made “tremendous progress” toward ending Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Earlier, his top diplomat, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also struck a relentlessly upbeat tone after the “very positive” Ukraine talks in Geneva over the weekend. “What’s left is not insurmountable,” he insisted.
Meanwhile, when a U.S. military envoy met with Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, it was even declared that “Ukrainians have agreed to a peace deal”, although “there are some details that need to be sorted out”.
This is a uniformly optimistic twist that the Trump administration is making on the tough and delicate negotiations currently underway to forge a common position among the United States, Ukraine, and Europe on how to bring the Ukraine war to a negotiated end.
But senior Ukrainian sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations say there remains a wide gap between what the Trump administration wants from Ukraine and what Kiev’s embattled authorities are prepared to accept.
The source, speaking to CNN from the Ukrainian capital, agreed with Trump officials that an “agreement” had indeed been reached on most of the points outlined in the 28-point US peace plan leaked last week.
But the source said there were not just minor differences, but significant differences that remained in at least three key areas that could make or break efforts to negotiate an end to the conflict.
First is the sensitive issue of whether Ukraine will hand over important territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine that Russia has annexed but not yet conquered, as well as a “fortress zone” of heavily defended towns and cities deemed essential to Ukraine’s security.
Previous U.S. proposals called for the land to be turned over to Ukraine for a Russian-controlled demilitarized zone. A Ukrainian source told CNN that there had been “some progress” on the proposal, but no decisions had yet been made on the content or wording of the draft proposal.
“It is very wrong to say that we currently have a version that is acceptable to Ukraine,” the official added.
Second, the controversial proposal to limit the size of U.S. forces in Ukraine to 600,000 troops (the number envisaged in the 28-point plan) is also still being debated. Ukrainian sources told CNN that new, higher numbers have been talked about, but Kiev wants further changes before agreeing to such restrictions on its military.
Finally, on the issue of Ukraine abandoning its ambitions to join NATO, officials told CNN that this request remains unacceptable. Such a concession would set a “bad precedent” and give Russia a de facto veto over a Western military alliance that it “isn’t even a member of,” sources told CNN.
The surrender of annexed territories, the demilitarization of Ukraine, and permanent exclusion from NATO are all three issues that the Kremlin most frequently cites as reasons for going to war in Ukraine. A resolution favorable to Russia is also the main condition for the Russian government to end its brutal operation.
But all three points the source discussed are also sensitive and longstanding red lines for Ukraine, over which tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops have fought and died. Formal withdrawal from either of these would be a major challenge and would involve potentially significant risks for Ukrainian leaders attempting to do so.
No matter how the Trump administration interprets it, these are merely “some remaining differences of opinion,” “insurmountable problems,” or even “minor points that need to be sorted out.”
