Hong Kong
—
U.S. President Donald Trump’s request to postpone a high-stakes summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping could work in China’s favor, allowing both countries to avoid complications related to the U.S. war with Iran, China’s most important strategic partner in the Middle East, according to Chinese sources familiar with the matter.
And experts say a weakening of President Trump’s involvement in a conflict that already threatens oil supplies and global economic growth could increase China’s involvement even as it negotiates.
The Chinese government has not officially confirmed the highly anticipated visit, nor has it yet given an official response to the proposed “five to six week” postponement. President Trump said this week that “China has no problem” with postponing the meeting, originally scheduled for March 31, to April 2, according to the White House.
Beijing remains vague about the postponement, but the tone remains positive, with Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian saying on Wednesday that the summit plays an “invaluable” role in guiding bilateral relations.
But behind the scenes, caution remains. The summit may still “not necessarily take place as planned” and either China or the United States could decide to withdraw from the talks, said two Chinese sources familiar with the matter, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
“President Trump will not be able to come if a war with Iran causes heavy casualties among the Chinese people or significant damage to Chinese assets in the region,” the official said, referring to Beijing’s clear red line not to be crossed.
This meeting is positioned as an important opportunity for both countries to reset the relationship between the world’s two largest economic and military powers.
In a high-profile press conference a week after the outbreak of the Iran war, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touted 2026 as a “pivotal year for China-US relations” in response to a CNN question about the potential impact of military conflict on President Trump’s visit plans. His comments were widely interpreted as an indication of the government’s commitment to the next meeting.
China had been closely monitoring the situation around Iran before the conflict and did not expect the United States to launch an attack ahead of the Xi-Trump summit scheduled for March, the sources said.
Experts say Trump’s proposed delay is seen as a stronger hand toward China and is likely to shed some light on the Trump administration’s thinking about when the war will end.
“The longer the war drags on, the more President Trump will feel frustrated and the more his weaknesses will become apparent. As a result, President Trump will be in an even worse position against China,” said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
“By then we’ll know whether President Trump has many cards left. So it’s better to wait a little bit instead of acting too quickly,” said Wu, who is also a key member of China’s Foreign Ministry’s Foreign Policy Advisory Committee.
Some in Beijing say Trump is approaching the negotiations from a position already weakened by the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in February that struck down sweeping emergency tariffs. His sudden war with Iran has drawn mixed reactions at home, and although he has repeatedly promised that the war will end “soon,” a prolonged campaign could hurt his popularity with U.S. voters.
“His plan was to end things quickly. But in the end, after all this time, he still can’t solve the problem and is stuck in a quagmire,” Wu added.
China, like the rest of the world, could suffer economically from the war, but experts say it also faces an opportunity for political gain.
As Gulf states and Europe grow increasingly wary of the unpredictable US administration, the war presents Beijing with an opportunity to position itself as a reliable, peace-loving alternative leader of the world.
“Many countries around the world now rate China as a more reliable partner than the United States,” said Rana Mitter, an expert on U.S.-Asia relations at the Harvard Kennedy School. “This doesn’t necessarily mean that China is a more reliable partner, but rather that changes in the United States have led to people seeing them that way.” “And I think that can and will be used by China before, during and after the summit.”
For many Chinese diplomats working behind the scenes, preparing for the summit between Mr. Xi and President Trump is a complex and difficult task.
Points of discussion need to be finalized several months in advance, and even the smallest details in official announcements require tough negotiations. Every detail will be precisely planned, including how many steps Xi will take to shake hands with President Trump during the photo shoot.
Fudan University’s Wu said the preparations for the summit had been deemed “insufficient” and the delay likely brought some relief.
“The Trump administration’s approach to preparing for this visit to China is different from previous U.S. administrations in terms of process and execution,” Wu said.
A delegation led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Commerce Secretary Scott Bessent concluded talks in Paris this week to lay the groundwork for the summit. However, the diplomatic protocol that precedes a presidential trip to China usually calls for a preparatory visit by either the US secretary of state or the national security adviser, but that did not happen.
“I think if we delay the visit a little bit, it will give both sides more time to negotiate and prepare, and the visit could lead to a better outcome,” Wu said.
Neil Thomas, a researcher at the China Analysis Center at the Asian Social Policy Institute, said the most likely path forward for U.S.-China relations is continued competition with regular stabilization efforts.
“Both sides still have reasons to ensure the relationship does not spiral out of control, and the postponement, rather than cancellation, of the Trump-Xi meeting suggests that both countries do not want to abandon summit diplomacy,” Thomas said.
But the relationship is constantly exposed to external shocks, and bilateral diplomacy can easily go off track, he added.
A war with Iran could add significant uncertainty to U.S.-China relations. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang called it “a war that should never have happened,” but Beijing was careful to avoid being seen as favoring one side or the other.
“China may take a ‘wait-and-see’ approach, especially if it feels its economy is resilient to global economic shocks,” said Charles Austin Jordan, a senior research analyst specializing in China at consulting firm Rhodium Group in Washington, D.C.
“But if that trust is shaken, or if President Xi assesses that the confrontation has weakened President Trump’s negotiating position, Beijing could ultimately become bolder in its approach toward the United States,” Jordan said.
