This scene is as old as war itself. Two soldiers raised their hands in surrender, carefully following the orders barked from the other side.
Except in this case, no humans were captured. Instead, the two Russians were subjugated to Ukrainian land-based robots and drones operated by pilots from a safe distance several miles from the front lines.
This is the future of war, and it’s happening now.
“The position was captured without a single shot being fired,” Mykola “Makar” Zinkevich, the commander of the Ukrainian unit that carried out the mission, told CNN.
Zinkevich, a member of Ukraine’s 3rd Independent Assault Brigade’s NC13 unit, which handles ground-based robotic attack systems, said last summer’s operation was the first in history to raid enemy positions without infantry involvement and capture prisoners using ground-based robots and drones. This is a difficult claim to substantiate, but it highlights Kiev’s pride in its technology.
Since then, missions in which robots replace human soldiers have become the unit’s daily bread and butter.
Drones have been swarming the skies above Ukraine’s front lines for years, posing a serious threat to infantry. As a result, Ukrainians have begun experimenting with land-based drones (remotely controlled vehicles that run on wheels or tracks) and ground-based robotic systems. Initially used primarily for casualty evacuation and resupply of troops, they also began to be used to carry out combat attack missions.
Land-based drones are much more difficult to detect and intercept than large military vehicles. Compared to aircraft, they can operate in all weather conditions and carry much larger payloads.
It’s also more durable and has a much longer battery life. Late last year, the III Corps, to which the 3rd Independent Assault Brigade belongs, announced that one ground robot equipped with a machine gun had successfully held off a Russian advance for 45 days with only light maintenance and battery recharging every two days.
Emphasizing that Russia’s military is much larger, Zinkevich said: “We must understand that we will never have more personnel and we will never be able to build a numerical superiority over the enemy.” “Therefore, we need to realize this benefit through technology.”
He said the current goal is to replace one-third of the infantry with drones and robots this year.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claimed on Tuesday that drones and robots have carried out more than 22,000 missions in the past three months alone. “More than 22,000 lives have been saved by robots replacing warriors entering the most dangerous areas,” President Zelenskiy said in a speech commemorating the successes of Ukraine’s military technology industry.
Robert Thorast, a ground warfare expert at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute, a defense and security think tank, said the new advances in Ukraine “will spark a heated debate about whether these robots are the future of warfare.”
He said ground drones would likely have a hard time actually holding territory, likening it to using tanks without infantry support. But he said they now “regularly save the lives of soldiers in casualty evacuations, dangerous resupply missions, demining, and even in combat.”
“This is critical in a war where drone aerial photography has made movement near the front lines nearly deadly…Even if we imagine a future where NATO does not fight at all, as it did in Ukraine, it is almost certain that these systems will find many uses in other forces,” he added.
More than four years of war have forced Ukraine to become a world leader in battlefield drones and robotic systems. However, the appointment of Mykhailo Fedorov as Ukraine’s defense minister in January further accelerated the push for dominance in this field.
Fedorov previously served as Minister of Digital Transformation and oversaw the success of Ukraine’s unmanned combat project. After taking over the defense portfolio, Mr. Fedorov introduced what the ministry called a war plan, a blueprint for how Ukraine could “force Russia into peace.”
The strategy focuses on technology and data, with hundreds of companies participating in dozens of government-led drone development and production initiatives.
Fedorov said on Sunday that he eventually wants ground-based robotic systems to be able to handle all front-line logistics.
War planning focuses on both defense and offense. The goal is to use data and technology to identify all air threats in real time, intercept at least 95% of missiles and drones, and create a “kill zone” of drones and robots operating nonstop along the front line at a depth of 15 to 20 kilometers. The Ministry of Defense announced last week that around 1,000 crew members are already operating as part of the new unified program.
Zinkevich, Ukraine’s ground robot commander, said the ability to scale up is key. Although Russia is behind in this race, it is also making progress, he said. “On the battlefield, the deciding factor is not who invented the technology and figured out how to apply it, but who succeeded in scaling it up over time.”
Analysts say the latest technological advances have given Ukraine a distinct advantage over drones on the battlefield. The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based conflict watchdog, recently assessed that the drone’s superiority “likely contributed to the stalling of Russia’s advance and recent Ukrainian counterattack.”
“While neither side has gained a decisive advantage, Ukraine’s medium-range strike operations have enabled Kiev to regain the upper hand,” the analysts said in a note. “The immediate challenge for Ukraine is to stay one step ahead of Russia’s response.”
While drone-based battlefield superiority may not be the deciding factor in the war, Kiev’s clear lead in drone warfare is now attracting more attention outside Europe.
One example is in the Middle East, where several countries that have invested millions in building up their conventional military forces since the beginning of the Iran conflict unexpectedly ended up using a $4 million missile to shoot down a drone that cost $50,000 to build.
Ukraine’s own limited resources have forced it to develop cheaper and more efficient ways to combat drones. Previously reluctant allies are now listening.
President Zelenskiy personally visited the Middle East, visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates before moving on to Turkey and Syria, offering to share some of Ukraine’s hard-earned expertise in exchange for aid. Kiev has a lot to offer the Gulf states, which have resources such as missiles for air defense that Ukraine desperately needs. Zelenskyy also signed a series of new agreements with several European countries.
The next big thing for militaries in Ukraine and around the world is, of course, AI. Ukraine is making progress in developing and training AI models for unmanned systems using real battlefield data.
However, many remain cautious about the use of AI in land-based drones. Zinkevich said he understands that some processes are being automated, but he doesn’t know if fully autonomous technology is appropriate for the battlefield.
“The final decision must always be made by humans,” he said. “Would you trust artificial intelligence with your weapons? How can you be sure that it can tell friend from foe? How can you be sure that it won’t malfunction or something will go wrong?”
Still, Zinkevich, a former infantryman and assault force commander who now commands robots, said he continues to be amazed by the technological advances he’s seen over the past four years.
“If you had heard yourself talking like this in 2022, you would have thought some lunatic was talking…The whole thing was just science fiction,” he said.
But he’s doing his best now. “Human life is precious, but robots have no blood. On this basis, my position is that ground robotic systems need to be developed faster, on a larger scale, and implemented as a global system for use on the battlefield.”
