The US plan to “guide” ships through the Strait of Hormuz, announced by President Donald Trump hours before it took effect, leaves many unanswered questions.
In a statement on X, U.S. Central Command said support for the operation, dubbed Project Freedom, “includes guided missile destroyers, more than 100 land-based and sea-based aircraft, and multi-domain unmanned platforms.”
However, it is not defined how these military assets will be involved in allowing commercial ships to navigate the straits again.
Jennifer Parker, a non-resident researcher at the Lowy Institute and a former Australian naval officer, told CNN on Monday that she expects the U.S. military to increase its presence in and around the strait to provide reassurance to commercial ships attempting to pass through the strait.
“This appears to be an operation…rather than directly protecting a vessel or vessels, it is an attempt to change conditions in the Strait so that vessels ‘feel safe’,” Parker said.
That mission could include several U.S. Navy ships in the strait and an array of aircraft flying over the strait that could spot and shoot down small boats and ships attempting to attack commercial shipping, she said.
Parker said that while convoy escort operations, in which U.S. destroyers would sail alongside commercial ships, were unlikely, an increase in U.S. warships passing through the strait would be a positive move.
Because to stop the operation, Iran would have to confront the U.S. Navy directly, something it has not done so far.
“In a sense, (Trump) is messing with Iran,” she said.
“They would have to escalate and fire on U.S. warships, but this is a different level of escalation,” Parker said.
President Trump’s announcement of the plan quickly drew condemnation from Iran, with Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Committee, warning that any U.S. intervention in the Strait of Hormuz would be considered a violation of the ceasefire that has been in effect since April 8.
“The Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf cannot be controlled by President Trump’s delusional posts!” he said in the X post.
Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that Iranian Armed Forces Central Command Commander Khatam al-Anbiya said that “foreign forces, especially invading US forces,” would be attacked if they tried to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump previously said he would respond to “interference” from Iran with “force.”
Shipping executives are not convinced the new U.S. plan will reduce risks. “Unblocking requires both parties, not just one,” Bjorn Højgaard, CEO of ship management company Anglo Eastern, told CNN.
So far during the war, the U.S. government has been reluctant to put U.S. Navy warships within range of Iranian land-based anti-ship missiles and small attack craft that Iran can deploy in large numbers in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
Centcom has acknowledged that a U.S. destroyer has passed through the strait only once, on April 11, when two U.S. destroyers passed through the waterway “as part of a broader mission to completely clear the strait of mines.”
Parker said it was surprising that the U.S. had not conducted further missions into the straits since then to encourage ships to enter the waterway, but said he supported Trump’s Sunday announcement.
“We cannot allow Iran to maintain the status quo, which is its de facto control of the strait,” he said.
Parker cautioned against equating the operation in the Strait with the blockade of Iranian ports that the United States has maintained since April 13.
This has led the U.S. government to interdict dozens of Iranian-linked vessels, but these operations extend all the way back from the entrance to the strait.
This is because the strait is a narrow waterway, about 34 miles wide at its narrowest point. But the tanker is traveling through a much narrower waterway, about two miles wide, and that distance makes boarding operations more difficult and dangerous, Parker said.
Narrow waterways also pose problems for escorting convoys, as there is little room for maneuver to evade threats.
Iranian forces that could threaten the strait escort mission are dispersed and mostly mobile. Experts say drones and missiles could be launched from trucks, and mines could be deployed from countless small fishing boats, dhows and even pleasure boats.
“Can we destroy all these ships to eradicate the threat?” asked Colin Koh, a research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Relations.
“To me, that’s not very feasible,” Coe said.
But even if the U.S. wanted to take that risk, experts question whether the U.S. has enough destroyers in the Middle East to carry out convoy missions.
“We don’t have the assets to do traditional convoy operations,” said Karl Schuster, a former U.S. Navy captain and analyst.
During the so-called Tanker War in the late 1980s, U.S. warships escorted re-flagged Kuwaiti tankers in the Persian Gulf. These missions, known as “Operation Ernest Will,” involved several U.S. ships escorting convoys of just a few tankers.
For example, in the first convoy on July 22, 1987, two merchant vessels were escorted by five U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships.
The United States does not currently appear to have sufficient assets in the region to send a similar escort. As of April 24, the US Navy has 12 destroyers deployed to the Middle East, CNN reported.
However, not all of that money could be used to protect the straits. There will also be those who will enforce the blockade. Destroyers provide the carrier strike group’s primary air defense, so other ships must remain on the carrier.
“This is why I don’t think they’re talking about close escort operations,” Parker said.
“I think they’re talking about a presence operation so that if Iran tries to attack shipping, we can respond.”
Kristie Lu Stout contributed reporting.
