Havana —
This is an indictment that could doom any remaining possibility of an agreement to avoid armed conflict between the United States and Cuba.
Federal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro over the 1996 downing of a commercial plane have outraged Miami’s Cuban exile community, and the charges were announced Wednesday. It was the day Cuban exiles celebrated their independence from Spain.
Seeing the government in Havana becoming increasingly weak, anti-Castro exiles argue against any compromise with Havana that would leave Cuban government officials in power.
But for Cubans on the island who support the revolution, there is little chance that Mr. Castro will go anywhere, much less go to court in Miami.
“He is the living embodiment of the revolution,” former U.S. diplomat Ricardo Zuniga told CNN of Castro.
Zuniga was part of a secret negotiating team during the Obama administration that struck a deal with Cuban officials, including Raul Castro’s son, to restore diplomatic relations.
Zuniga said indicting Castro as a way to force the Cuban government to agree was likely to backfire.
“Ultimately, grievances on both sides could lead to conflict simply because Washington has cut off communication with the Cuban government through this indictment,” the former diplomat said. Said.
But many exiles believe that the revolution founded by Fidel and Raul Castro is crumbling and that additional pressure is all that is needed to hasten the inevitable collapse.
“The era of Castro is over,” Cuban-American Rep. Maria Eribra Salazar (R-Fla.) declared on Tuesday’s X.
For Miami exiles, the 1996 shooting down of two civilian planes belonging to the volunteer organization Brothers to the Rescue, killing the four Cuban-Americans on board, represents a crime that went unpunished for more than 30 years.
President Trump has repeatedly cited his popularity among Cuban-American voters, but has not ruled out a deal that could avert a U.S. attack on the communist-held island.
President Trump told reporters on Tuesday: “I can make (a deal) whether you change the regime or not. The regime was harsh and they killed a lot of people.”
“But this is a country that really needs help. They can’t turn on the lights, they can’t eat. We don’t want to see that.”
President Trump claimed that the Cuban government was “desperate” to reach a deal, while also saying the same about Venezuela and Iran, where negotiations ended abruptly after a U.S. military attack.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American and a staunch enemy of Castro, said Cuba’s top leadership must step down.
Faced with such stark choices, the Cuban government may choose to continue fighting rather than cede power without firing a shot.
In this country, every official speech ends with the cry, “Homeland or death!”
Growing economic and humanitarian crisis
But the Trump administration’s oil embargo on Cuba brings the country ever closer to the brink of economic and humanitarian crisis.
Sanctions against foreign companies doing business with the Cuban government have also forced some shipping companies that import food into Cuba to announce suspensions of operations.
Increasing shortages and power outages have sparked sporadic anti-government protests, which Cuban officials generally do not condone.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s unusual visit last week sent a warning to the Cuban government, warning Havana that the window for concessions was closing, U.S. officials said.
The State Department on Monday announced new economic sanctions against senior government officials.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel rejected the measure, saying Cuban officials “have no property that should be protected under U.S. jurisdiction.”
But the indictment of Raul Castro, who was leading the Cuban military at the time of the shooting, has raised temperatures between the Cold War adversaries to levels not seen in decades.
And the charges laid the groundwork for a possible military operation by the United States aimed at extraditing him, as was done against Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, a close ally of Cuba.
But unlike in Venezuela, where Maduro’s military put up a lackluster defense and was easily routed by U.S. forces, and where Maduro’s former lieutenants quickly chimed in with Trump’s demands, Castro’s supporters are likely to react far more belligerently.
As in the 1996 shootout (Brothers of the Rescue had previously distributed anti-government leaflets over Havana), Cuban officials today insist they have the right to protect their sovereignty.
Cuban troops are already preparing to fend off a potential U.S. attack, with President Díaz-Canel vowing a “bloodbath” awaits the invading forces.
The military is conducting exercises across the island, while the government is warning civilians to prepare for attacks.
Any action against Castro would likely lead to outright war, even if Cuba was vastly outnumbered.
Although officially retired, 94-year-old Raul Castro is still referred to in Cuba as a revolutionary leader and military general.
On his rare public appearances, he still wears military uniform.
Almost all political and military officials are hand-picked by Castro, and his successor, President and Communist Party Secretary Diaz Canel, has said that all important decisions are made by Castro.
Targeting Castro could leave Cuban officials with little room for maneuver, Zuniga, a former diplomat, warned.
“By cutting off communications, the Cuban side may not realize that the next step on the American side could be some kind of attack,” he said.
“But there’s not much to destroy that isn’t already dilapidated.”
