When Abiy Ahmed became Ethiopia’s prime minister in 2018, he offered Africa’s oldest uncolonized nation a clean slate that had been suffocated by decades of harsh state control.
His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, oversaw strong economic growth during his nearly six-year rule, but continued a historic pattern of using violent repression to quash opposition. The crackdown sparked years of protests, widened the gulf between the government and the people, and ultimately led to his resignation.
Just 90 days after taking office as prime minister, Abiy, then just 41 years old, surprised the world by negotiating a truce with neighboring Eritrea, ending a brutal 20-year civil war.
This rapid progress, combined with early reforms such as releasing political prisoners and allowing freedom of the press, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize. It positioned him as a regional peacebuilder and domestic reformer, leading many to believe that he would lead Ethiopia into a free and democratic era.
But that elation quickly disappeared. Ethiopia, currently Africa’s second most populous country with more than 135 million people, is deeply divided, facing intense ethnic conflict, restrictions on free speech, and repression of opposition.
As the country prepares for national elections, the leader once hailed as a healer is now seen by critics as the main driver of these divisions.
But that is expected to matter little in the vote, with the ruling Prosperity Party expected to gain the upper hand amid continued division and violence in the opposition.
A country with power grabs and two realities.
The June 1 election revealed that the country is divided in two.
Meanwhile, the rapidly growing capital Addis Ababa is portraying a story of progress on social media marked by new skyscrapers, expanded roads, city lighting and parks, alongside economic reforms that include the launch of a new national stock market.
But outside the capital’s borders, this urban glow fades.
Regions such as Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia remain devastated by active war, genocide, and large-scale displacement. Observers link these conflicts to Mr. Abi’s move away from Ethiopia’s long-standing ethnic federalist system, which has allowed diverse regional states to draft their own laws and maintain local militaries.
For about 30 years, the country has been ruled by the EPRDF. The country is a coalition of four powerful ethnic-based political parties representing the main regions of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and the southern states.
Mr. Abiy was initially brought to power by this coalition to defuse tensions that had forced his predecessor, Mr. Desalegn, to resign.
However, in November 2019, less than two years after taking office and less than a month after winning the Nobel Peace Prize, Abiy disbanded EPRDF.
Instead, it established a single national political organization, the Prosperity Party, which combined the previous coalition government and other ethnic minority parties. To further centralize power, he ordered regional states to disband their local armies and integrate them with the national army.
These reforms stripped the ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) of its historical control over local government and forced it into an active opposition movement. The policy also faced resistance in other regions, including Abiy’s home region of Oromia, where demands for local autonomy were growing.
As instability increased, the regime returned to tight state control, detaining opposition politicians and journalists and delaying elections. Tigray’s holding of local elections in defiance of the federal government’s delays led to heightened tensions, political conflict, and a civil war that erupted in November 2020.
The conflict was one of the bloodiest in recent history, resulting in an estimated 600,000 casualties.
An African Union-brokered peace deal ended hostilities in 2022, but there are growing fears that the agreement will then collapse and a return to civil war could occur.
Ethiopia is currently facing active insurgency not only in Tigray but also in Amhara and Oromia regions due to disputes over autonomy, borders, and ethnic marginalization. This violence could prevent millions of people from voting.
“Ongoing ethnic polarization, misgovernment, marginalization and arbitrary arrests have seriously undermined the legitimacy of President Abiy Ahmed’s government,” said Sulafel Getahun, an Ethiopian geopolitics researcher living in exile in Kenya.
“I can confidently say that Ethiopians today are more divided than ever under his rule. Rampant ethnic hostility has torn apart the social fabric of Ethiopian society, leaving rifts and mistrust in communities.”
Getahun fled in 2024 after being arrested and tortured by pro-government forces known for extrajudicial killings and illegal detention in interviews with foreign media, he said. He added: “The closure of civic space has made him (Abi) a very polarizing figure in Ethiopia’s political landscape.”
Ethiopia’s communications minister did not respond to a request for comment.
This is not the first time Abby has faced such charges. In 2021, diplomat Berhane Kidanemariam resigned as deputy minister at the Ethiopian embassy in Washington, DC, in protest of the Tigray conflict.
In an open letter, Kidanemariam accused Abiy of abandoning early promises of reconciliation and instead leading Ethiopia down a “dark path to destruction and collapse.”
“One of the ironies of a prime minister who came into office promising unity is that he has deliberately exacerbated hatred between different groups,” Kidanemariam, a native of Tigray, said in the letter.
Mr. Abiy’s office dismissed these claims as baseless.
These deepening political rifts have observers questioning the credibility of the election. The next government will be determined through parliamentary elections, and the winning party will elect the prime minister.
Although Abiy described the vote as the most organized in Ethiopia, logistical challenges and issues surrounding the integrity of the election remain. The election commission excluded parts of Tigray and Amhara because of ongoing conflict. Additionally, opposition parties reported political repression and administrative barriers.
Eyob Mesafinto, head of EZEMA, Ethiopia’s largest national opposition party, acknowledged the arrest and intimidation of party members. He told CNN a week before the vote that these actions “reflect the persistence of undemocratic practices, especially in areas where opposition support appears to be strong.”
But Mesafint expects this election to be “more competitive than the last election” in 2021, when Abiy’s party won almost all seats.
This time, the ruling party has not fielded candidates in more than 20 constituencies, a move seen as a strategic move to expand the opposition party’s space in parliament and increase the legitimacy of the election. Activist Befekadu Hail Techany told CNN that the tactic was aimed at “bringing opposition members and independent candidates to parliament.”
Without this approach, Techany pointed out, the ruling party will easily win elections wherever it contests.
He added: “The Prosperity Party allows opposition members to run without competition, so there could be more opposition members in parliament.”
For expelled researcher Getahun, there is no reliable vote. “Many observers, including myself, see the upcoming election as just a coronation,” he said.
