Iran’s attacks on Israel this week were some of its boldest attempts to redefine the boundaries of a conflict that has been fought for decades primarily through proxies, covert operations and carefully calibrated retaliation.
By targeting Israel in response to attacks in Lebanon, Tehran appears to be showing that it will no longer stop at its own borders and that its leaders are willing to take greater risks.
Since the ceasefire between the United States and Iran on April 8, Tehran has repeatedly accused Israel and the United States of eroding the ceasefire agreement through military action. The United States carried out strikes on Iranian targets despite ongoing indirect negotiations. Meanwhile, Israel launched some 3,500 airstrikes in Lebanon, including the capital Beirut, despite the cease-fire restrictions, according to the Israeli prime minister.
Iran responded with a series of coordinated retaliatory strikes against U.S. and Gulf targets, while warning that if diplomacy fails it could restart the war, expand it beyond the Persian Gulf, and threaten shipping lanes from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.
Fresh gunfire erupted between the United States and Iran overnight Tuesday and Wednesday, following the downing of a U.S. military helicopter earlier this week, underscoring the continued instability across the region.
But this week’s attacks on Israel seemed to mark a further step. The Iranian government has indicated that Israeli military action against its regional allies could also provoke a direct Iranian response. The aim was to reach an interim peace agreement and break a diplomatic deadlock in negotiations to aid Lebanon.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said on Monday: “We have reversed the ceasefire equation that existed on paper, but it has been repeatedly violated in practice on the ground.” “Iran’s response will not change until there is a real willingness to build trust.”
Iran insists it will not allow Israeli and U.S. attacks to continue, saying the ceasefire agreement continues to be violated by Tehran, which Tehran says has been repeatedly violated. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Bagay said on Monday that it would not accept such a deal “under any circumstances”.
The move signals broader changes in Iran, with a new generation of leaders increasingly abandoning the cautious and reactive approach that has long defined the Islamic Republic’s strategy toward its adversaries. They now appear willing to take risks and deploy Iran’s military, economic, and regional influence to shape events in the Middle East, rather than relying primarily on deterrence and strategic fortitude.
It’s also the same Iranian leader that US President Donald Trump has described as “more rational” and “pretty reasonable.”
“Iran has put both Israel and the United States in a box,” former US Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller told CNN’s Jessica Dean. “They are ready to take risks. They think they are winning. They don’t think a ceasefire is in their interests.”
In 2020, the first Trump administration broke a long-standing taboo and assassinated Qasem Soleimani, Iran’s most senior official, who was then killed by the United States. The Iranian government’s response, under the leadership of then-Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, reflected the country’s preference for coordinated retaliation over uncontrolled escalation. Did Iran launch missile attacks on US air bases in Iraq after the warning was communicated/issued? This gave American troops time to evacuate.
In June 2025, when the United States joined Israel in attacking Iran, Iran again opted for a proportionate response, demonstrating that it still believes de-escalation management is necessary despite its fiery rhetoric.
This week’s attacks on Israel suggest that the calculus may be changing. “This is the first time in decades that a regional power has the means, ability, and desire to take strong action against Israeli military action or invasion of a third country,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, a US foreign policy think tank.
After the attack, Iran warned it was ready to “increase the level of tension” to challenge Israeli and U.S. assumptions about the limits of its response.
Tasnim news agency close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) quoted an unnamed military official as saying, “If Israel and the US think that through ‘controlled tension’ they can make Iran and (its proxy network) resistance fronts predictable in the face of their own crimes, or that they can limit the type of Iranian response, they are making a foolish mistake.”
Danny Sitrinowicz, former head of Israel’s military intelligence branch in Iran, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Tehran is seeking to create a “new formula” aimed at preventing Israel from acting not only against Iran’s homeland, but also against proxy networks in the region.
“The events of the past 24 hours have shown once again that Iran’s current leadership increasingly believes that whatever it cannot achieve through diplomacy, it can ultimately achieve through the use of force,” he wrote in X.
Iran also appears to be testing the U.S.-Israel alliance and taking advantage of growing differences between the two countries over the endgame of the conflict. President Trump has publicly broken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent weeks, insisting that a diplomatic deal with Tehran is within reach and that Israel has “no choice” but to accept the deal.
That strategy may be paying off. After Iran attacked Israel on Monday, President Trump acted quickly to prevent further escalation, meeting twice within hours to dissuade Prime Minister Netanyahu from retaliating.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghai Baghai said the United States was “responsible” for Israel’s actions and warned that those actions “inevitably” affect the diplomatic process. Meanwhile, Israeli military officials stressed that although the US military helped intercept Iranian missiles, it played no role in the attack on Iran.
Iran may have succeeded in forcing the US government to choose between supporting Israel’s military freedom of action and maintaining diplomatic relations with Iran.
Miller said Trump’s pressure on Prime Minister Netanyahu “added another problem to the problem” for Iran, referring to Iran’s new influence. “It will be the creation of a new norm.”
CNN’s Aida Karimi, Nadine Ebrahim and Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report.
