abu dhabi, united arab emirates —
“If a vessel attempts to transit the strait without our permission, or attempts to transit outside the designated route, the vessel will be responsible for the consequences.”
The warning was broadcast by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Thursday to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint that has emerged as one of the biggest tests of the deal to end the war between Iran and the United States.
Just hours later, the Singapore-flagged container ship Everlove was attacked by an Iranian drone, a US official told CNN. It was the first attack on a ship since the deal was signed, and President Donald Trump on Friday called it a “stupid violation of the ceasefire.”
In retaliation, the US military carried out strikes on Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz on Friday. But one U.S. official downplayed the possibility of an escalation after the airstrike, telling CNN that it did not reflect a return to large-scale combat operations, at least for now.
Iranian state media outlet Press TV reported that the Revolutionary Guards responded to Friday’s airstrikes by saying they targeted US military positions in the region. The US military has not confirmed any such attacks. Bahrain reported an Iranian drone attack on its territory early Saturday, but the target has not yet been disclosed.
The ceasefire agreement states that Iran will use its “best efforts to make arrangements” to ensure the safe passage of commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies pass. Ensuring unimpeded passage was Iran’s main concession to the United States.
But for Iran, reopening the strait does not mean relinquishing control of it. A vaguely worded clause in the agreement states that Iran and Oman will work together to “determine the future management” of the waterway, effectively giving Iran a formal role in managing the waterway.
As negotiations with the United States progress, Thursday’s attack signals that Iran plans to impose conditions on the strait and determine where and when ships can pass through it. The Revolutionary Guards condemned the route, which is not approved by the Iranian government, as “unacceptable,” “completely dangerous” and “forbidden,” and called on all ships to work exclusively with the navy to ensure safe passage.
Meanwhile, Iran’s newly established Persian Gulf Straits Authority (PGSA) has issued rules requiring ships to fill out an email verification form in exchange for a “safe navigation guarantee” that includes insurance. CNN attempted to contact the PGSA, but emails to the agency were bounced.
Three different shipping routes have now emerged through this narrow maritime corridor, with various authorities competing to allow dozens of ships to pass through the 34-mile-wide waterway. One of the southern routes passes off the coast of Oman. The second route was used before the war and passes through the middle of the Channel. And a third route further north is controlled by Iran. This forces ship operators to make difficult choices about which route to take.
“All of this is very confusing to navigating these waters safely,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Maririsks, told CNN. “The current environment is extremely dangerous.”
Lack of clarity over which route to take complicates efforts to return waterway trade to pre-war levels. Shipping companies say any potential agreement between Iranian and U.S. leaders has not been reflected at sea.
Conflicted by competing corridors, they not only navigate dangerous waters facing threats from mines, drones and Revolutionary Guard patrol vessels, but also complex political currents across the Channel.
If ships choose routes outside of Iran, they risk being attacked. If it uses the Iranian route in response to the demands of the Revolutionary Guards, it is concerned about the risk of Western sanctions if the deal collapses.
“Global shipping companies want to avoid doing business with Iranians because they may be at risk of future U.S. sanctions,” Mariskus’ Maniatis told CNN.
Iran initially demanded payment of tolls, but then quickly said it had no intention of imposing tolls. Instead, it plans to impose fees on shipping services and introduce new environmental taxes on ships, a move that has raised eyebrows among the United States’ oil-exporting allies in the Arab world.
Following the attack on the Everlovely, the IMO suspended a coordinated humanitarian evacuation of more than 500 commercial ships carrying more than 11,000 seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf out of the region “until further clarity is available,” the group said in a statement. At least four ships have since turned back from the corridor, maritime experts said.
For ships choosing the more sanctions-avoiding Oman route, ships will be sailing very close to each other, increasing the risk of accidents.
Insurance premiums soared during the war, with shipowners paying more than $1 million per very large crude carrier (VLCC) to protect them from attack.
Even though such accidents are now rare, insurance premiums remain high. Matthew Wright, principal cargo analyst at Kpler, a data intelligence company that tracks global shipping and goods flows, told CNN that ships need to specify the route they choose in order to be insured when transiting the strait.
“While this is not a return to square one, it has become very clear that there is no absolute guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz will be on a path to some degree of reopening, and that we are still in the 60-day ceasefire period,” Wright said, adding that “if differences are not resolved by mid-August, we may see the three routes used in a more disorderly and less safe manner.”
Despite the turmoil, shipping risk firms are cautiously optimistic that after months of uncertainty, ships are beginning to embark on the perilous voyage, even if it means navigating the Channel’s new political realities by choosing between competing routes and incurring significantly higher costs.
But the same companies warn that a clear gap remains between what leaders agreed at the negotiating table and what is actually happening in the Straits. Because of the uncertainty, many shipping company managers are waiting for a period of incident-free sailing before allowing their ships to sail again.
“We come from a situation where there is a high degree of mistrust between both sides, so this agreement is a good first step,” Wright said. “But clearly there is a huge gap between what the United States is saying and what the Iranians are saying.”
“We are in very chaotic times,” he added.
