A vigil was held at the coffin of slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Sunday, attended by many senior government officials and the Ayatollah’s three sons. However, among those who were conspicuously missing was a former president who was at odds with the current administration.
Their absence cast doubt on the Iranian government’s philosophy of “unity” that has dominated the rhetoric throughout Khamenei’s week-long funeral proceedings. Experts said the message was intended to convey to the United States and Israel that military action has not and will not cause the Islamic Republic to collapse or incite dissent against the regime.
Khamenei’s funeral culminated with his burial in the northeastern city of Mashhad on Thursday, drawing millions of mourners who believed wholeheartedly in the cause of the Islamic Republic.
But that’s not all. Iran, a country of 90 million people, is a story of two peoples: those who mourn and those who do not.
Many Iranians are angered by the spectacle, as they associate Khamenei with an oppressive regime that for years has only silenced dissent. Others feel apathetic and see the day of the funeral as an opportunity to get out of the crowded city. The absence of former public figures is indicative of the tight control the event’s organizers are exerting at a time when the current government’s support base feels more active than ever.
But Mojtaba, Khamenei’s son and successor, has been conspicuously absent, prompting speculation about his whereabouts. The new leader has not been seen in public since he was appointed supreme leader after his father’s death.
“The funeral organizing committee had an opportunity to encourage unity in the regime by including figures such as the reformist former president,” said Arash Azizi, a U.S.-based Iran expert and author of “What Iranians Want.” Azizi added that the committee “seems to have decided instead to take a tougher ship, targeting only the core and executives of the regime.”
The regime is using Khamenei’s funeral to energize its base, said Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible States and Strategy, adding that support within the leadership is likely greater than ever.
“But I don’t think that’s the majority of the country,” Parsi said.
Azizi noted that two of the reformist former presidents who were absent from Sunday’s funeral, Mohammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, had long been at odds with Khamenei and were effectively ousted by him. The same was true of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hardliner who later clashed with the supreme leader and was sidelined as a result, he said.
But President Ahmadinejad attended Monday’s funeral, making a rare public appearance after years of estrangement. Images published by Iranian media showed him walking through a large crowd participating in the procession.
“The Iranian government wants to create a perspective that it is possible to lose the supreme leader without losing continuity of governance,” Ali Baez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran project, told CNN.
“The large crowds and carefully staged ceremony strengthen that message, but the conspicuous absence of key figures also reminds the world that the leadership still feels very weak and is unwilling to cast a broad umbrella,” Baez said.
At the beginning of the war, the United States and Israel were heavily invested in the prospect of regime change in Iran, but experts said that was unlikely given Iran’s succession plans. Each assassination results in a new appointment, often a much more forceful one than the previous leader.
Analysts say there is currently mixed sentiment in a country where leaders have used coercion and repression for years to silence dissent.
According to a May report by Amnesty International, since the conflict between the United States and Israel began earlier this year, Iran has carried out a spate of arrests under the cover of a so-called “wartime situation.”
“Iranian authorities have arbitrarily arrested more than 6,000 people, including protesters, journalists, lawyers, human rights defenders, dissidents, and ethnic and religious minorities,” the rights group said.
In a statement aired on the semi-official Student News Network, Justice Department spokesman Asghar Jahangir said more than 3,000 people had been arrested in the country last month for collaborating with the “enemy.”
Iran has said it expects up to 15 million mourners to attend the multi-day funeral, which will include events in Tehran and Qom, as well as Najaf and Karbala in Iraq, before Khamenei’s final burial in his birthplace of Mashhad, Iran. However, not everyone wanted to pay tribute to them.
Some Tehran residents, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of security implications, told CNN they felt both dissatisfied and apathetic about the large commemoration and refused to join the crowds in the streets.
“When I think about it, I’m angry that they shut down the city for someone who ruined his life,” one 30-year-old man told CNN. “But to be honest, I’m at the point where I don’t care at all.”
Despite Khamenei’s death, ultimately “nothing has changed,” he said, adding that his absent successor may not either.
Azizi told CNN that in a country of 90 million people, it was inevitable that there would be a wide range of opinions about the late leader.
“A vocal minority fully supports him, but others are more divided,” he said. “He has been Iran’s head of state for almost 40 years, and different aspects of his rule will be evaluated differently by different Iranians.”
Another Tehran resident, 35, said he had decided to “ignore all this.”
“I’m going to relax, take it easy, have friends over and don’t care,” the resident, who runs a business in Iran’s capital, told CNN, adding that the regime “will always put on a show.”
A woman in her 30s who works as a part-time lecturer in the city said the number of mourners claimed by the administration is greatly exaggerated. “The numbers 10 million and 20 million are complete nonsense,” she said, referring to the crowds she saw firsthand. “But you should see how much money they spent on this!”
Some Tehran citizens took the opportunity to treat the day of the funeral as a holiday, and many traveled north, especially to the Caspian Sea.
Iran’s state news agency IRNA reported that congestion was increasing on Chars Road and the Tehran North Expressway, already one of the country’s busiest roads, “due to the heavy traffic on the north-south route.”
ICG’s Baez said this is a moment of mixed emotions for Iranians as they consider what lies ahead.
“For establishment supporters, this is a moment of real grief and defiance. For many others, it is not about mourning one man, but about closing a traumatic chapter in the hope that the country can finally move beyond war and isolation,” he said.
