A slow-moving storm could dump a summer’s worth of rain on parts of Texas this week, posing a significant flash flooding threat to the state.
Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in much of East, Central and Southwest Texas through Thursday, but the areas most at risk are near the U.S.-Mexico border in the Rio Grande Valley and the southern Edwards Plateau. Austin, Houston and San Antonio are among the large cities that could see at least localized flash flooding, especially on Monday and Tuesday.
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday. Widespread totals could be 2 to 6 inches. Isolated totals of up to 8 inches are possible, primarily in the Rio Grande Plain and southern Edwards Plateau. Don’t turn around and drown. #txwx pic.twitter.com/D01T75HHZl
— NWS Austin/San Antonio (@NWSSanAntonio) July 13, 2026
The Hill Country is also at risk of heavy rain, but the heaviest damage is likely to remain just southwest of the region. The threat comes just over a year after the devastating Fourth of July floods that killed more than 130 people, including 25 girls and two teenage counselors at Camp Mystic.
Flood watches have been issued for about 6 million people in south central and southwest Texas, including Austin, Del Rio, San Angelo and San Antonio.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday activated the state’s emergency response to make state resources available, including water rescue teams and helicopters, to respond to sudden flooding.
“Texans are asked not to drive or walk on flooded roadways, as flooding can be deeper and faster than it appears,” a release from the governor’s office said.
As temperatures rise due to pollution from global warming, these extreme rainfall events are becoming more common because warmer air holds more moisture. Weather systems can act like watery sponges and wring out the moisture, causing locally intense downpours.
Adding to the rain threat is abundant Gulf moisture colliding with a stationary front and energy pockets in the upper atmosphere. This is a notorious method of producing clusters of slow-moving storms that produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall per hour.
However, pinpointing exactly which towns and cities are likely to be affected by the worst flooding is less certain, as it depends on where the most persistent storms occur from day to day.
The worst threat of heavy rain this week is expected in southwest Texas, including Del Rio, from the Interstate 10 area to the Rio Grande along the Mexican border.
The National Weather Prediction Center has issued a flash flood risk level 3/4 until Wednesday. Rain in the region on Monday is expected to pick up in the late evening and continue overnight.
Rainfall totals in the area could reach 2 to 6 inches, with locally up to 10 inches possible. The high end of this range is close to the levels Del Rio typically sees from June to August, and would drop in just a few days.
1 to 3 inches of rain is possible in the foothills, with locally more possible. The region is prone to flooding because steep slopes, shallow soils, and exposed rock reflect heavy rain rather than allowing it to penetrate into the ground.
The flooding threat may finally ease by Friday or Saturday, but showers and storms could continue, especially in West Texas.
