london —
Andy Burnham has been confirmed as the new leader of Britain’s Labor Party, succeeding Keir Starmer on Monday and becoming the seventh prime minister in a decade of extraordinary political instability.
In his acceptance speech, Burnham vowed to “restore hope” and challenge a political culture and economic model that he said “doesn’t work well enough for ordinary people.”
Mr Burnham’s appointment was officially confirmed on Friday, but he has actually been the party’s next leader since winning a crucial by-election last month, allowing him to return to parliament and challenge Mr Starmer.
Labour’s crushing defeat in May’s local elections was seen as a sign of what would happen if Starmer, widely unpopular despite his landslide victory in the general election two years ago, leads the party to the next national vote. In the race for a new leader, Mr Burnham, then Mayor of Greater Manchester, emerged as the best alternative.
A by-election was engineered, with Burnham’s ally Josh Symonds resigning from his seat in Makerfield, a historic Labor heartland in the north of England where the far-right populist party Reform UK is gaining momentum, and Burnham emerged victorious in a high-profile campaign.
Despite vowing to stay in office, Mr Starmer announced his resignation days later. Mr Burnham’s victory in Makerfield showed Labor MPs wary of losing their seats at the next general election that he can take on the Reform faction, which has been leading national opinion polls for months. The leadership election quickly became a coronation ceremony, as an absolute majority of 403 party members supported Burnham.
He will move into 10 Downing Street on Monday, ending a long career in politics. During his first term at Westminster from 2001 to 2017, he served as a cabinet minister in both Tony Blair’s and Gordon Brown’s governments, eventually becoming Health Secretary, and twice unsuccessfully stood for the Labor Party leadership.
Immediately after his second attempt, he returned to his native north-west England to run for mayor of Manchester in 2017.
There, he established himself as a counterweight to Westminster, highlighting the country’s deep north-south divide, and earning him the nickname “King of the North.” Manchester’s economy and public transport network flourished during his tenure.
Unlike Starmer, Burnham has a clear narrative of devolving power from London that runs through his policies.
But the trap that ensnared Starmer lurks in most of the issues Burnham has to deal with. The promises he made in his June speech – including more social housing, reindustrialisation and greater public control of essential public works – will have to be somehow financed within the same spending constraints that hampered Starmer.
“People now have a fundamental sense that the state is not working well,” said Simon Kay, policy director at think tank Re:State, pointing to the weak economy, NHS and social care system.
A major review of ballooning social security spending is due to be reported in the autumn, and is likely to force difficult decisions, especially for the new centre-left prime minister wary of the political costs incurred by his predecessor in cutting welfare spending. And in a stroke of timing, Mr. Burnham took office just as a major immigration reform bill was about to pass Congress, forcing him to immediately take a stand on the most controversial issue.
Still, Mr Burnham is thought to be a better communicator than his technocratic predecessor, although he operates within the same environment as Mr Starmer.
“This is really a living experiment of how important messengers are,” Kaye told CNN. “As for devolution, it’s already underway under Starmer. Burnham is going to push for it more forcefully. Let’s talk more about that.”
“Financial constraints will remain the same… So how important would it be to Labor in parliament and to the national mood if the messenger was a little more charismatic?”
Economic headwinds such as the fallout from Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and the energy crisis caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine remain just as outside Burnham’s control as they were for Starmer. Economic growth and household incomes have been largely stagnant since then, due to years of austerity following the 2008 financial crisis.
And because the international environment is so unpredictable, attempts to revitalize the economy can quickly stall. The UK is expected to be the third fastest-growing member of the G7 this year, but this could easily be affected by soaring energy prices caused by the Iran war.
In many ways, the UK is still accepting its status as a middle power, unable to significantly influence world affairs. The recent budget battle over increased defense spending, in which the UK has failed to commit to meeting NATO spending targets while wars in Ukraine and the Middle East continue, only illustrates this.
Even the country’s two most important foreign relations, the United States and Europe, are difficult for the prime minister to manage due to the twin forces of Brexit and the Trump administration.
It’s not just geopolitics that Burnham will have to navigate a potentially tricky relationship with the Trump administration, which he has been critical of. Technology is already being drawn into it too – Labor’s intention to ban under-16s from social media platforms, most of which are owned by US companies, has sparked opposition from the US embassy in London, and guarantees of access to artificial intelligence models could be another flashpoint.
Like his predecessor, Burnham took office at a time when Britain was seeking change. Achieving that change may depend not only on leaders but also on forces outside the government’s control.
