The National Hurricane Center said the area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf Coast continues to organize and could become a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday. There is an 80% chance that the system will become a tropical storm or depression within the next 48 hours, a significant increase from the 20% chance Saturday morning.
Tropical storm watches and warnings could be issued for parts of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast as early as later today.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance continue to increase as the circulation center becomes clearer, all signs of a developing tropical cyclone. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft will fly into the system on Sunday to collect information on winds, pressure, and the surrounding weather environment.
The low pressure system is expected to move slowly northwest over the next 48 hours, dropping a band of rain over land from the west coast of Florida, through the Big Bend, and across the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and then Louisiana. These can rain down rainforests rapidly, causing flash floods and strong winds. Some areas of the Florida Panhandle could see 4 to 6 inches of rain into Thursday.
The window of time for budding storm development is limited, with minimal destructive wind shear until Monday, then increasing shear starting Tuesday. Wind shear is a factor that prevents tropical systems from strengthening and disrupts storm structure, even in the very warm waters of the Gulf.
If this disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone, it will be named “Vata”. The second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season typically occurs around July 17th.
It’s been more than a month since a named storm formed in the Atlantic Basin. Tropical Storm Arthur formed in mid-June and made landfall on the Texas coast near Galveston hours later. NOAA predicts that the number of star systems in the Atlantic Ocean will be lower than average this season due to the development and strengthening of El Niño.
