Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has been pursuing nuclear technology for two decades. But now the deal with Washington formalizing Riyadh’s goals has raised concerns that the deal, combined with the chaotic aftermath of the war between Washington and Tehran, could plunge the region into a new arms race.
The most controversial part of the deal, which reportedly gives Saudi Arabia the future option of enriching uranium on its own soil with less International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight, has drawn the strongest reactions from Iranian, Israeli and American commentators.
But in Tehran, where the United States and Israel launched a war to destroy Iran’s nuclear program in February, a move that raises the possibility that Iran will change its bomb-making principles, some officials actually welcomed the possibility of a new arms race, essentially asking, “If we don’t have a nuclear capability, why should Saudi Arabia have one?”
“Naturally, if the arms race gets into full swing in the region, we will have more freedom of action than anyone else,” Iran’s interior ministry spokesman Ali Zeinivand told reporters on Wednesday night, according to state media. “America has a history of discrimination. Some places say some countries should have nuclear programs, and other places say some countries shouldn’t have nuclear programs.”
Iran’s hard-line newspaper Hamshahari accused Riyadh of involvement in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, saying the US government had “double standards”.
“While targeting Iran’s peaceful nuclear program and launching an all-out war in the region, it (now) grants the fundamentalist Islamic countries responsible for the September 11 attacks the right to enrich their nuclear arsenals at the risk of proliferation,” the paper said.
Fifteen of the 19 9/11 attackers were Saudi nationals, but Saudi Arabia has consistently denied any government involvement in the attacks. The United States has long maintained that its strategic partners were not involved in the attacks and that al-Qaeda acted independently, hijacking four civilian planes and crashing them into New York City’s Twin Towers and the Pentagon.
In Israel, just three years ago the Biden administration called for normalization with Saudi Arabia in order to approve the nuclear deal with Riyadh, but two Israeli sources said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not surprised by the deal.
“We knew it was coming, it’s been in the works for a while, but Trump (President) is now taking it a step further,” said one of the sources, an Israeli official.
Both sources said Israel does not consider the deal final and hopes to be able to influence the process through direct communication with the White House or through the U.S. Congress.
A second Israeli source said Netanyahu still plans to press Trump to include Riyadh’s progress toward normalizing relations with Israel as part of the package.
President Trump on Thursday referred to the agreement signed in 2020 that established relations between Israel and several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia’s neighbors such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and said the “civil nuclear agreement” with Riyadh is “completely conditional” on Saudi Arabia’s participation in “the highly respected and successful Abraham Accords.”
In the aftermath of Israel’s war in Gaza, which followed Hamas’ attacks on Israel in 2023, Saudi Arabia has insisted it will not normalize relations unless Israel agrees to the establishment of a Palestinian state and a path to peace in Gaza.
Israeli officials said Israel was particularly concerned about Saudi uranium enrichment, the “most dangerous element” of the deal.
“Israel’s main concern is not the civil nuclear deal itself, but uranium enrichment,” Yoel Guzanski, a senior researcher at INSS and a former official at Israel’s National Security Council, told CNN. “This could set a dangerous precedent locally.”
The 30-year nuclear deal between the United Arab Emirates and the United States, signed in 2009, is considered the “gold standard” with Abu Dhabi agreeing to international oversight, no uranium enrichment and no fuel reprocessing, elements that greatly reduce proliferation concerns. .
However, a clause in that agreement stated that Abu Dhabi could renegotiate and amend the agreement with Washington “if improved terms are agreed to by other non-nuclear-weapon states in the Middle East.”
“Firstly, the Emirati model, which is based on the waiver of the right to enrichment, will be weakened,” Guzanski said. “Both countries have a clause in their agreement that would allow them to sign a deal if the other country receives a better deal, and both countries could seek to sign a deal as well. Turkey and Egypt will also be watching this closely. This could also weaken the case against Iran.”
Nuclear uncertainty weighs heavily on the region. Israel is believed to have a secret nuclear program and nuclear weapons, while Iran has long been suspected of enriching uranium to near-weapon-grade levels and preparing the infrastructure for weaponization, despite being a party to the United Nations Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Additionally, the former supreme leader issued a religious ruling banning nuclear weapons.
Turkey and Egypt have partnered with Russia to build peaceful nuclear programs, but unlike Israel, they are signatories to the NPT. Turkey also granted the United Nations additional information and access to its nuclear facilities.
Turkey’s foreign minister warned in February that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, Ankara “may inevitably enter into the same competition.”
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the agreement with Saudi Arabia is a peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement, often referred to as the “123 Agreement,” which also includes a bilateral safeguards agreement. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the conditions “maintain the highest standards of nuclear safety and nonproliferation.”
Before Saudi Arabia can enrich uranium, a joint U.S.-Saudi team must determine whether the process is legitimate and commercially viable. Because any facilities will be built by the United States without transferring sensitive technology, these decisions will likely be long-term and left to future administrations. The deal would prohibit Riyadh from developing its own enrichment technology or buying it from other countries for 10 years, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the deal’s approval.
As the U.S.-Iranian conflict enters its fifth month, with no active negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, there are growing concerns that Iran views nuclear weapons as the only viable deterrent against future attack, especially since Iran still has nearly half a ton of highly enriched uranium.
The Islamic Republic’s move to weaponize nuclear fuel could trigger a regional chain reaction, risking long-standing warnings that an Iranian bomb would prompt Riyadh to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities to come true.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in a 2018 television interview: “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but if Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will undoubtedly follow suit as soon as possible.”
A year after the Saudi crown prince’s remarks, the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed by the United States and Israel in late February, said the United States would have no problem building nuclear facilities in Saudi Arabia because the kingdom depends on the United States.
“Personally, I will not be upset if they build (nuclear facilities),” the slain leader told his followers in a speech at the time. “Because I know that, God willing, these will fall into the hands of the Islamic Mujahideen in the not-too-distant future.”
