The White House should not have been surprised by Iran’s list of demands.
Hardliners repeat this mantra every day. The limited agreement in progress with Oman for the Strait of Hormuz is not the same as the reopening of the vital waterway that the US government wants.
To do that, they say, “America must clean up its act.”
Tehran has now spelled out its implications and laid out a set of conditions that appear to go beyond the memorandum agreed in June but later suspended following U.S. attacks on Iran, Iranian retaliation across the Middle East and a resurgence of attacks on shipping.
On Saturday, Mohammad Bagher Zolgadol, a highly influential figure in the Revolutionary Guards, twisted a series of extremist demands.
That Iran is making such a demand underscores the perception that the Iranian government believes it has the upper hand. CNN reported that U.S. military supplies are dwindling (something President Trump angrily denies) and that Trump’s commander-in-chief is suggesting he is seeking an “exit” to the conflict.
Iran is also likely to take note of President Trump’s repeated threats of large-scale attacks, but his failure to follow through on those threats.
Zolgadol called on the US to lift the naval blockade and withdraw its troops from around Iran.
He said the United States must also pay reparations to Iran for the wars this year and last June, carried out primarily by Israel. And the United States must lift sanctions and unconditionally release Iranian assets frozen overseas.
The implication of Zolgadol’s statement is that these conditions must be met before or in parallel with the strait concessions, which would contradict the formula set out in the memorandum.
The report said sanctions would be completely lifted once a final agreement on Iran’s nuclear program was reached, and envisaged a gradual release of assets with both countries “mutually agreeing on procedures related to the release of these funds.”
But Iran’s apparently new strategy is not without risks.
James Stavridis, a former top allied commander in NATO, said the new demands “narrow the Trump administration’s options.”
“Iran is overreaching and hardliners appear to be in control, reducing the chances of an immediate deal,” Stavridis wrote on X Sunday.
The Trump administration has not responded to the latest developments in Iran.
“What we’re really looking at right now is how can we actually set up a traffic plan so that ships passing through can get through safely,” U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News on Saturday.
However, the situation is currently at a stalemate.
Iranian officials, whether they are considered moderate or hardliners, say there is no prospect of new negotiations with the United States.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday: “Unless the United States addresses and corrects its violations of the memorandum of understanding, there seems to be no possibility of resuming negotiations.”
He added: “Currently there are no negotiations with the US. Yes, messages are being exchanged through intermediaries.”
Araghchi referred to the more limited and temporary Hormuz Agreement being negotiated with Oman, which borders Hormuz Island’s southern coastline.
“We can say that we are in the final stage. The existing old route will be replaced by a new route,” he said, noting how traffic through the strait is currently low and divided into routes on the Iranian and Omani sides.
“Of course, this does not mean the opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” Aragushi told reporters in Tehran. “This is subject to a series of other conditions being met.”
Other Iranian officials have suggested that the deal with Oman will continue to give Iran significant leverage in the strait, which it did not enjoy before the war but has become as important a red line for Tehran as the nuclear issue.
Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Ghalibabadi said last week that the deal reflects a new strategy to exercise “effective sovereignty” over the strait, while stressing that Iran has no intention of routinely closing the waterway in peacetime.
In a far cry from a cryptic reference to the United States, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai warned last week that an agreement with Oman could be reached “provided that certain third parties do not interfere with the process.”
Traffic remains very limited amid uncertainty and sporadic attacks on ships passing through the strait. According to shipping data, an average of about 12 ships have passed through the area each day over the past week.
This is about one-tenth of the normal traffic volume before the war.
The conflict between the United States and Iran, already six months old, shows no signs of resolution, but rather has evolved into an unpredictable cycle of escalation and pause.
