El Niño has hit the snooze button on the Atlantic hurricane season for weeks, largely preventing the basin from waking up and producing storms, but it has now been shaken out of its slumber.
Tropical Storm Cristobal formed in the North Atlantic late Wednesday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. Cristobal was given a chance to expand on a coin toss by center earlier in the day, only to come back to life.
Cristobal is expected to have a short life in the open ocean, but may soon be joined by more tropical troublemakers.
The center still expects an area of the tropical Atlantic to have at least an 80% or “high” chance of becoming a tropical cyclone later this week. Just to the east, there are also areas with a 40% or “moderate” chance of development in the coming days.
The next tropical cyclone to form somewhere in the basin will be named “Dolly.”
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Mid-August is typically when the tropics enter their busiest season, but future candidates for tropical development will have to fight an uphill battle to form and survive against the effects of El Niño.
The main challenge facing these systems is the wind shear that destroys large amounts of storms caused by El Niño. This strength is likely to persist as El Niño grows into a potentially record-breaking Super El Niño in the coming months.
Wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction at various levels in the atmosphere that can prevent storms from forming in the first place, preventing them from strengthening or tearing them apart completely. It is now firmly seated over what should be the most active region of the Atlantic Ocean.
This is the exact setup that sparked many predictions of a below-average season in the first place. Hurricane season has certainly lived up to its expectations so far. Through August 11th, it was the least active start to the season since 2009.
Until Cristobal Island, Arthur and Bertha were the only tropical storms to form. Both came back to life along the Gulf Coast, experiencing wind shear every step of the way, preventing significant consolidation and limiting overall impact.
Future Tropical Chances will face a similar story, just in a different location.
Cristobal’s formation marks the first time this season that a storm has formed anywhere other than near the U.S. coastline. Fortunately, it’s not a landing threat. It will quickly move into even colder waters and could dissipate by Thursday afternoon.
Attention is still focused on other parts of the Atlantic Ocean where formation is likely. This region of the ocean, known as the Prime Development Zone, should be extremely active at this point in a typical season, as wind shear eases and water temperatures warm, providing enough fuel for tropical systems.
But thanks to El Niño, wind shear has remained strong and has recently reached record strength, said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
The potential system is likely to develop and may take some time beyond Wednesday to gain enough energy boost to overcome some degree of shear.
It is possible that it will become a tropical storm as early as Thursday as it moves westward through the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, it is unknown how strong it will become. Predictive computer models are starting to focus on where systems can track from there. Most are leaving for the eastern Caribbean this weekend, where they are expected to continue to be affected by stronger winds.
In the coming days, we should continue to monitor the moderate probability of development in the far eastern tropical Atlantic. It faces similar shearing problems to areas farther west.
A typical Atlantic hurricane season typically includes at least three tropical cyclones by August 3rd and four by August 15th. Arthur affected the U.S. Gulf Coast in mid-June, and Bertha in late July.
Hurricane season is also delayed. The first hurricane of the season typically occurs around August 11th. Hurricane Erin occurred a few days after that threshold in 2025, and in 2024 there had already been two hurricanes by that point.
There is still plenty of time for tropical cyclones to form, as mid-August to mid-October is when most tropical cyclones and hurricanes form. But multiple groups, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Colorado State University, are increasingly confident in predicting a weak season overall.
Last week, NOAA released an updated forecast that raised the chance of a below-average season from 55% to 75%. The forecast also significantly lowered the range for the overall number of major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher from 1-3 to 0-2.
If the 2026 season ends without a major hurricane, it will be the first time since 2013 that there has been no such strong hurricane.
