Hawaii is bracing for a possible hurricane strike this weekend as Tropical Storm Lala’s forecast path turns north, bringing the strengthening storm, its heavy rains, damaging winds and dangerous waves closer to the Big Island.
A hurricane warning is currently in effect for Hawaii County, with hurricane conditions expected somewhere on the Big Island by the end of this week. A tropical storm watch was also issued for Maui County, which includes Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.
Lara’s sustained wind speeds increased to 60 mph Thursday night as the storm moved west-northwest about 555 miles east-southeast of Hilo, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The latest forecast shows that Lara will approach the Big Island on Saturday, increasing the possibility of a rare hurricane making landfall. Even a slight change in path could determine whether the center of the storm crosses the island or soon passes south.
Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency across the state Thursday, allowing officials to deploy the National Guard and access emergency funds as the state prepares for Lala.
As the storm becomes more organized, confidence in its exact path should increase as we approach the weekend.
Landings on the Hawaiian Islands have occurred only a few times in modern records. The last tropical cyclone to make landfall was Tropical Storm Olivia, which made landfall on Maui in 2018, making it the first to make landfall on Maui since record-keeping began in the 1950s.
Rainfall remains one of Lara’s most serious threats. This storm could cause 8 to 12 inches of damage across Maui and the Big Island, with totals of up to 25 inches possible on the Big Island alone. An additional 4 to 6 inches is expected for the rest of the archipelago, with isolated amounts expected to reach up to 8 inches.
The first heavy rain will be on the Big Island starting Friday. It is expected to spread to Maui on Saturday and reach Lanai, Molokai, Oahu and Kauai by Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is warning of life-threatening flooding and landslides, especially in steep terrain.
Hawaii Island is at risk from Lala’s strongest winds, with the center of the storm expected to pass just south of the island. Winds of that strength can knock down trees and power lines and cause power outages, but rain-soaked soil makes trees more susceptible to falling, making that risk even worse.
Lara could also push storm surge 1 to 3 feet onto normally dry ground along parts of the Big Island coast. Large and dangerous waves will begin reaching east-facing coasts on Friday and will increase into the weekend, resulting in life-threatening waves, rip currents, coastal flooding, and significant coastal erosion.
Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi said “now is the time to prepare, not panic,” and authorities across the state are urging residents to check on emergency supplies, reconsider family plans and stay informed in the coming days.
The ongoing Super El Niño has further increased the chances of storms forming in the central Pacific this year. Rising ocean temperatures in the region and weaker upper-level winds that kill storms are making storms more likely to form and strengthen. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts an above-normal season in the central Pacific, with between five and 13 tropical cyclones expected to form.
