Almost half a year after the war between the United States and Iran began, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains virtually at a standstill, and global oil reserves are rapidly dwindling as the two countries at the center of hostilities argue over who controls the vital waterway.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that the strait, through which oil flows from countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq to the rest of the world, is under US control.
“They have no control. We have complete control. We own it, but at some point they’ll probably do something, but then they’ll get blown away,” Trump told reporters Wednesday. “We’re in a very good position right now,” and earlier Wednesday he claimed the U.S. Navy had cleared the strait for mines.
But Iran insists it will not fully reopen the strait until the U.S. meets conditions.
Experts say the reality is far more complex than President Trump’s declaration of control, with ships fearing for their safety amid attacks on vessels in the strait and the ever-looming threat of renewed attacks by the United States and Iran.
The U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place, and ships are prohibited from entering and exiting Iranian ports, both inside and outside the strait. This put pressure on Iran’s cash flow and closed the strait to Iran’s maritime trade.
There is still traffic passing through the Persian Gulf to destinations other than Iran. However, the traffic volume is still only a fraction of pre-war levels. For example, only 14 ships crossed the Strait on Tuesday, whereas before the war about 120 ships crossed the Strait every day.
Karl Schuster, former director of the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Information Center, said the main reason for this is that “very few commercial shipping companies and their vessels are confident that the United States can guarantee safe passage through the straits.”
Such concerns are not unfounded. At least four vessels belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked by drones and missiles in the strait last week alone, the company said. These attacks, in turn, drive up insurance costs and further hamper shipping companies’ operations as wars escalate.
In a recent advisory, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said that in addition to outright attacks, Iran could harass ships by overflying drones or carrying out “targeted surveillance of commercial vessels”.
Since the start of the war, there have been 54 reports of damage to ships in the strait, or on either side of it in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, according to UKMTO, the Royal Navy’s arm that monitors maritime safety and shipping in the region.
In addition, there were three total vessel losses and 13 near misses.
“Until we ensure safe use of the strait, we cannot fully control it,” Schuster said.
CNN military analyst and retired Air Force colonel Cedric Layton agreed that neither side has full command right now. “What you’re really dealing with is a conflict here,” he said.
“Due to Iran’s ability and willingness to threaten U.S. military access, blockade, and at least the use of mines and small boats to harass ships, neither side has actually been able to fully control the strait.”
Who has the upper hand?
Both the United States and Iran have the tools in their arsenal to pressure the other and gain some control over the strait, which normally carries 20% of the world’s oil and an even higher percentage of the natural gas that some countries rely on.
Iran faces the strait, so it has the advantage of proximity. There is also a “psychological and political advantage,” Schuster said, as disruption to maritime traffic provides a political and strategic boost.
The closure of the strait has devastated the global economy and energy sector, increasing pressure on the United States to find a solution or guarantee safe passage through the waterway. This pressure could affect the U.S. midterm elections scheduled for November, and could also work in Iran’s favor if the new Congress forces President Trump to end the war on terms favorable to Iran, Schuster said.
And Iran appears ready to bide its time, with a top adviser to the Revolutionary Guards saying Tuesday it could “extend” the war until President Trump leaves office.
Mohammad Reza Naqdi told PBS: “We have to obtain deterrence so that our enemies never attack us. Then we can live in safety.”
Experts say the United States still has a clear military and economic advantage, with tough sanctions on Iranian oil and a freeze on Iranian assets abroad.
But U.S. forces in the region are “basically pretty thin and have been there for quite a while,” Layton said. This means the United States will need to replenish its forces, for example by sending a new carrier battle group to the region, to increase its leverage in negotiations with Iran over the strait.
“U.S. influence is limited by its staying power,” he added. If the United States were to back out or loosen its influence on the blockade for any reason, it would lose negotiating power and potentially have less say in the future of the strait, including which parties govern it and what new rules are imposed on shipping.
As a result, President Trump is in a difficult position. Analysts say it risks losing influence and must make concessions if it withdraws, but is under pressure to end the war and provide cost-of-living relief to voters ahead of a key parliamentary vote.
