Jerusalem —
A giant billboard on Tel Aviv’s main highway has put Turkey at the center of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s election campaign. The image shows President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, along with Iran, Hezbollah and the mayor of New York, as enemies of Israel, with the slogan “They want Prime Minister Netanyahu to lose. Don’t let them win.”
Just a few days later, Turkey also became the epicenter of Israel’s latest military conflict.
Israeli warplanes attacked Abu al-Dahal air base in northern Syria, officials said, targeting Turkey’s new military buildup, which Israel views as a serious threat.
However, with the election just over two months away, the latest attack is close to Prime Minister Netanyahu’s election message, and debate is heating up inside and outside Israel. Is Prime Minister Netanyahu pre-empting a real strategic threat, or is he amplifying one to improve his standing at the ballot box?
Throughout much of his decades-long political career, Prime Minister Netanyahu has portrayed himself as “Mr. Security,” prepared to confront any threat Israel faces. He is also a shrewd political operator with a long track record of turning crises to his advantage.
Tom Barrack, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, condemned Israel in an unusual public appearance, calling the attack an “unnecessary escalation.” In an interview with podcaster Mario Naufal, Barrack hinted at a political motive and floated a “theory” that Israel was “simply trying to lure Turkey.” He called it “a very aggressive move, but one that could work well in the lead-up to the election.”
Officially, Israel calls the attack a purely operational necessity. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz have both said that Israeli intelligence indicates that Turkey is preparing to deploy troops and equipment to the air base.
Israeli military officials told CNN that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had gathered information about Turkey’s plans to deploy personnel, drones and air defense systems to the area. Such a development could limit Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian airspace and change the strategic balance in the region, the official said. Another source said the information was shared with the Trump administration and Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Israel and Syria have been in deconfliction talks for the past year, reaching what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called a “security status quo.”
On Sunday, Israeli Mossad intelligence chief Roman Goffman met again with Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shaibani in Jordan to defuse recent tensions, Syria’s state news agency reported.
Still, Turkey, the United States and some of Netanyahu’s domestic political opponents pointed to the timing. Turkey rejected Israel’s explanation as “untenable” and accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of “pursuing expansionist and destabilizing policies in the region” ahead of an October vote. The Turkish government said it would continue to cooperate with the Syrian government “on legitimate grounds towards establishing peace, stability and prosperity.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu brands President Erdogan an ‘anti-Semitic tyrant’
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister Katz pushed back against politically motivated rhetoric, warning that Turkish influence in Syria was not imminent. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said last week: “We will not tolerate a Turkish military presence that takes root in Syria and threatens Israel.”
Meanwhile, the Israeli prime minister also doubled down on his already bellicose rhetoric against Erdogan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday slammed Erdogan on the X-Post as an “anti-Semitic tyrant who oppresses his own people.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Erdogan have a long-standing public feud that escalated dramatically during the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. President Erdogan has called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal and has repeatedly accused Israel of atrocities in Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahu accused President Erdogan of supporting Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently voiced opposition to the sale of US-made F-35 fighter jets to the Turkish government and warned of Erdogan’s “aggressive ambitions” in the region.
Amos Harel, senior security analyst at the left-wing newspaper Haaretz, said both security and political explanations were relevant. Citing intelligence information about Turkey’s plans to deploy advisers, drones and air defense systems, he said: “There are real indications that President Erdoğan’s approach towards Israel is very hostile and that Turkey is carrying out various military operations in Syria, some of which are linked to the IDF, including at its particular airport.”
At the same time, Harrell told CNN, “It is also absolutely clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu is pursuing a new and aggressive course.” This is a lesson learned from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel: pre-emptive strikes on all fronts, while establishing security buffer zones along Israel’s borders in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. Israeli forces occupied a 400 square kilometer buffer zone in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime in 2024, and have occupied it ever since.
But the political underpinnings of the recent war of words have only deepened the suspicions of some Netanyahu’s critics. Opposition leader Yair Lapid defended the operation as justified and criticized Israel’s subsequent triumphant statements. “In the Middle East, it’s important to strike when you need to. But if you strike, stay silent,” he said.
Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democratic Party, called the operation “provocative and dangerous.” Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak went further, writing on social media that the escalation of events “strongly hints at a political intention to hold elections amidst a series of security tensions aimed at instilling insecurity among the people.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu and his political allies are currently trailing in opinion polls, and his critics fear that a new security crisis could fundamentally change the political landscape and help him control the campaign agenda.
“Prime Minister Netanyahu is known to believe that the security emergency is an option of last resort that can reorganize the system and improve its chances of survival in this election,” Harrell said. He also said that with President Trump reining in Israel’s war against Iran and restricting military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, “Turkey and Syria become potential front lines. This raises, at the very least, strong suspicions that political considerations are also involved.”
