When US President Donald Trump launched the war against Iran, he called it a “field trip” that would last just a few weeks. Six months later, the conflict has become a nightmare for almost everyone involved, even remotely.
This has been a disaster for the Iranian people, millions of people across the Middle East, and consumers around the world suffering from high costs.
But President Trump’s war goals remain unfulfilled, even though his goals have continued to change, from initially calling for Iran’s complete surrender, regime change, and the abandonment of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions to more recently calling for simply reopening the Strait of Hormuz and putting the brakes on Tehran’s nuclear program.
But the war’s unintended consequences could extend far beyond the Middle East, impacting global security, lowering America’s global standing, and giving adversaries an opportunity to expand their influence.
As the Trump administration focuses on extricating itself from the self-inflicted Iran crisis, it has turned its attention away from other potential global flashpoints in which the United States has long been involved, including Ukraine, Taiwan, the South China Sea, and South Korea.
From President Trump’s decision to scale back annual joint military exercises with South Korea and the withdrawal of the only US aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific to Ukraine’s severe shortage of anti-ballistic missiles, many of the war’s most significant geopolitical and security consequences, which may ultimately be felt far beyond the Middle East, have yet to materialize.
Emily Harding, deputy director of defense and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a U.S.-based think tank, said while potential flashpoints have not yet evolved into full-blown crises, there is good reason to be concerned.
“This is like a global adversary looking at a situation, learning more about how the United States would react at a given moment, and incorporating that into their plans. But I’ve yet to see anyone take advantage of this,” she said.
“It’s not that the building is actually starting to shake, it’s that some of the foundations are weakening.”
ukraine and russia
The US and Israeli attacks prompted fierce retaliation from the Iranian government. Iranian drones, ballistic missiles and other projectiles are raining down on U.S. military bases and allies across the Middle East.
Some of the ammunition originally destined for Ukraine was transferred as the United States and its allies exhausted their weapons stockpiles.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told CNN this month that his country has only one-tenth of the interceptor missiles it urgently needs to thwart a surge in Russian ballistic missile attacks.
The shortage has had a devastating impact on Ukrainians, making this summer the deadliest period for civilians since May 2022.
The global oil crisis caused by Iran’s decision to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz also weakened the Trump administration’s economic pressure campaign against Moscow. Faced with soaring gasoline prices at U.S. filling stations, President Trump made the controversial decision to lift some sanctions on Russian oil exports to cool the market. In doing so, the United States effectively helped Russia earn more cash to fund its war efforts in Ukraine.
Global disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer trade due to strait closures are also helping Russia find new customers.
Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Center in Berlin, said this was demonstrated in June when Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted Southeast Asian leaders in the Russian city of Kazan.
“The turnout in Kazan was impressive. Nine out of 11 ASEAN leaders were present, as was the Indonesian foreign minister and the special representative for Myanmar. Above all, they decided to make the long journey to Russia because the US and Israeli attack on Iran caused a spike in energy and fertilizer prices.”
In some ways, the Iran war benefited Ukraine. This made the rest of the world aware that more than four years of war had turned Kiev into a drone powerhouse and led to a series of security cooperation agreements and ammunition pledges with many countries.
The Iran war now casts a shadow on the Korean peninsula, another potential flashpoint. Strictly speaking, the Korean Peninsula has been at war for over 70 years, as there has been no peace agreement since the inter-Korean conflict between 1950 and 1953.
The United States is deeply involved in the region, with approximately 28,500 US troops stationed in South Korea. But the decades-old relationship stalled this year after President Trump drastically scaled back the annual Ulchi-Chief Freedom Shield joint military exercise with Seoul, in part because of South Korea’s lack of support for the Iran war.
The US president also signaled he was open to dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who has overseen the country’s steadily increasing nuclear arsenal and regular missile launches.
Analysts said the impact of military exercise cuts would affect preparedness in the event of a resumption of war on the peninsula in the near term, and more distant effects include lengthening the time needed for South Korea to assume wartime control of South Korea’s military, which both South Korea and the United States seek.
South Korean officials announced this week that a second round of amphibious landing exercises scheduled for September have been canceled in June. These exercises were to involve U.S. Marines stationed on the Japanese island of Okinawa, whose forces were participating in the blockade of Iranian ports.
There are also supply and logistics issues, including the relocation of some US anti-missile missiles from South Korea to the Middle East during the fighting. The Pentagon has not said how much of its interceptor missile inventory has been moved, but analysts say there will likely be long-term shortages of key interceptors like the Patriot system.
Taiwan and the South China Sea
The deployment of the Japan-based aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Arabian Sea to rescue the beleaguered aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln means that the United States will be without an aircraft carrier in the Pacific for an unspecified period of time, should the need arise.
The United States has had a continuous presence in the Pacific for more than two decades, with the exception of a few weeks in 2024.
The absence of aircraft carriers in the U.S. 7th Fleet’s waters raises questions for other regional allies.
The Philippines will be particularly concerned given China’s increased activity in the South China Sea around disputed areas such as Scarborough Shoal, which is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone but is effectively controlled by the Chinese government.
Tensions between Manila and Beijing extend to Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands as well as Scarborough. In both cases, clashes have occurred between Filipinos and Chinese personnel at sea.
The United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty, and the lack of an aircraft carrier in the region could put the U.S. military at a distinct disadvantage if tensions with China escalate, especially given current military stockpile issues.
“My biggest concern is what will happen to the United States in a potential conflict with China,” Harding said. “It’s not going to get better right away… but if there were to be a conflict with China, we would be in a situation where there would be a shortage of ammunition, especially the ammunition needed for that conflict.”
Other catastrophic outcomes of war may occur, for example, if other players attempt to weaponize other international transport chokepoints.
“We haven’t seen this yet, but if one of these countries wants to in the future, they could certainly point to this as a (precedent),” Harding said.
He added that the severity of the war’s impact will largely depend on how long the United States continues the war.
“The Trump administration needs to decide what is enough as an outcome here. If the only thing that is enough is the complete destruction of its nuclear program, and what Israel wants is an internally fractured and divided Iran, then it will be a long-term effort of both blood and treasure, and the global economy will feel its long-term effects,” she said.
But he added that Trump may decide that simply rendering the nuclear program “unusable” is sufficient. He suggested that something could be done by keeping Iran inaccessible by attacking its main sites, which are now destroyed and under rubble, every time the Iranian government tries to gain access.
“It’s not a great solution, but it’s a workable solution. And if that’s enough, and (Iran’s) weakened proxy network is enough, what we really have to deal with is the Strait of Hormuz. It’s difficult and it’s a little bit expensive, but it’s not as expensive as what (the United States) is doing right now,” she said.
“From Iran’s perspective, all they have to do is survive, and that’s what they do. So they can keep doing this as long as they want.”
