Reuters —
According to broadcaster RUV, partial results of Iceland’s referendum on whether to start accession talks with the European Union (EU) gave the “Yes” camp a narrow majority early Sunday morning.
According to RUV, based on the first 87,000 votes counted out of 270,000 voters, about 51.2% supported the government’s proposal to resume negotiations, while 48.8% said no. There was no information on turnout.
Election officials said reliable results may not be known until midday Sunday. Voting ended at 10pm (22:00 GMT), beginning a complex operation to transport ballots by plane, boat and car from polling stations in towns and regions.
A Gallup poll on Friday showed a narrow majority opposed the government’s proposal to restart negotiations, a slight change from an earlier poll that had shown supporters of restarting negotiations holding a narrow lead.
“Yes” campaigners in support of the talks say joining the bloc could ease high interest rates and provide a more secure environment in a world destabilized by the war in Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats against Greenland, another Arctic island.
‘No’ campaigners argue that EU membership would threaten the island’s sovereignty and fishing waters.
Prime Minister Kristórn Hróstadóttir told reporters after voting in the capital on Saturday that the referendum campaign had heightened debate about Iceland’s place in the world.
“Today is a great day. We have been waiting for this day for years so we can vote,” Hróstadóttir said, adding that the government would continue its efforts regardless of the outcome.
A “yes” vote would pave the way for talks with Brussels. Iceland will likely need to hold a second referendum on whether to join the EU in a few years.
Iceland first applied to join the EU in 2009, at the height of the financial crisis that hit the small, at-risk country’s economy particularly hard. Negotiations ended in 2013 after the Eurosceptic government shelved the process.
Geopolitical turmoil has returned, bringing new urgency to an issue that Icelanders have debated on and off for decades.
Iwo Egil Makuga Arnason, a 19-year-old student who voted in Reykjavík on Saturday, said he voted in favor of the proposed negotiations.
“I think this will have a big impact on my life, whether we join the European Union or not,” he told Reuters.
Interest rates and cost of living
Domestic debate in Iceland focuses on interest rates, fishing rights, and cost of living rather than security.
Iceland has been dealing with persistently high inflation and interest rates that have made mortgages prohibitively expensive. Supporters of a ‘yes’ vote argue that EU membership, and perhaps the introduction of the euro, could provide some relief. The Central Bank of Iceland interest rate is 8.00% and the European Central Bank is 2.25%.
“It won’t solve Iceland’s structural deficiencies, but it could be a catalyst for a healthier economy,” said Vilhjalmur Hilmarsson, chief economist at Viska, one of Iceland’s largest labor unions.
Opposition leader Gudrun Hafsteinsdóttir, who has been leading the “No” campaign, argued that economic problems are being exaggerated.
“These are not problems that Brussels will solve. These are problems that Icelandic politicians will have to solve,” she said.
Ragnhildur Skálfedinsdóttir, 70, said Iceland was managing well on its own and would vote “no.”
“With our continued independence, we can look to a bright future,” she said before voting in Reykjavík.
Under EU regulations, fishing quotas are based on, among other things, past fishing patterns. Some officials argue that this would give Iceland more control over its own waters, as some EU countries have not fished in Iceland for decades.
Opponents are not convinced.
“We know that the European Union promises some flexibility, especially in the beginning, but we know that this will not lead to good results,” Hafsteinsdottir said.
A Foreign Office memo estimates that if Saturday’s vote is in favor of restarting negotiations, accession negotiations could begin by the end of 2026 and could take 18 to 24 months.
