A tropical storm, or low-pressure system, formed in the northern Gulf Coast on Monday and could quickly push inland into parts of Texas and Louisiana, bringing flooding rain.
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Heavy rain and thunderstorms about 160 miles south of the Louisiana coast could organize into a tropical depression or storm. That could happen as soon as Monday morning when Hurricane Hunter enters the system.
The name of the next Atlantic storm is Edouard (eh-DWARD).
The system is expected to be short-lived, as it is expected to slide inland near the Texas-Louisiana border by Monday night or Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center said.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued for parts of both states’ coastlines later Monday.
Regardless of what it is called, the biggest impact from this system is heavy rain.
A Level 2/4 flood risk was issued for both Tuesday and Wednesday in southeastern Texas, including Houston. The threat level may increase in future updates.
Rainfall can reach 2 to 4 inches per hour, with total rainfall reaching 6 inches in some areas. This is more than enough to cause flash flooding, especially on roads.
The potential storm’s heaviest rain bands could also produce tropical storm-force wind gusts along the coast that could cause partial power outages.
Another short-lived storm is possible, but El Niño will strengthen and potentially set new records, matching what the 2026 Atlantic season has brought so far.
According to one measure, activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season was only 11% of average as of Aug. 30.
The most recent storm, Dolly, lasted just 24 hours before breaking up in the open Atlantic Ocean on August 28th. Cristobal disintegrated similarly rapidly on August 13 in the northern Atlantic Ocean. Two other storms, Arthur and Bertha, persisted briefly in the Gulf in June and July, respectively.
Residual rain and thunderstorms from the former Tropical Storm Dolly are still moving west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas, but are unlikely to re-involve into another tropical storm or tropical cyclone.
The first hurricane of the Atlantic season is nearly three weeks later than average. This was the longest period without a hurricane in the Atlantic since 2022, when Daniel was formed on September 2nd.
Satellite-assisted records dating back to 1966 show that the first Atlantic hurricane occurred on September 11, tied by Hurricane Gustav in 2002 and Hurricane Humberto in 2013.
September is the typical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, thanks to a combination of more favorable weather factors.
The most fundamental component is warm water temperatures, which peak in September after basking in the summer heat and fuel storm formation and intensification.
Low wind shear, also known as tropical kryptonite, is also a big ingredient. Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere and can tear apart anything from a budding tropical system to a fully developed hurricane.
However, this year’s El Niño has made wind shear unusually strong and widespread in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. It is suppressing the potential for storms and tearing them apart like Dolly.
This is also the main reason why forecasters say it will be a quiet season overall.
But that’s no reason to completely ignore the rest of hurricane season. Even during an overall calm season, storms can still find opportunities to form and become a threat.
