A month-long stalemate in fighting between Iran and the United States ended this week with a new exchange of fire, plunging the region back into a dangerous and potentially unsustainable military stalemate.
As US forces attacked Iran again on Tuesday, Tehran attacked Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait, ignoring President Donald Trump’s warning that any retaliation would result in “even harsher attacks.”
Unlike the heavy attacks that took place more than a month ago, the return fire has been limited, and experts say it shows both sides are reluctant to return to full-scale fighting.
“So far, both countries have primarily focused their attacks on military targets, rather than civilian or energy targets, and despite threats from senior Iranian officials, Iran has not resumed attacks against Saudi Arabia or the UAE,” Danny Sitrinowitz, head of the Israeli military intelligence agency’s Iranian branch, said in a post on X.
Nevertheless, the current situation is dangerous and there is room for miscalculation that risks pulling both sides back into full-scale conflict.
“Neither side wants to return to full-scale war,” Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN’s Becky Anderson, adding that Iran’s obstruction of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. economic pressure on the country are “becoming increasingly unsustainable” for both sides.
The US president has said he has no intention of negotiating with Iran. “I don’t give a damn if we sign a deal that’s not worth it to them,” Trump said, adding that he liked the U.S. position “a lot better now.”
But beyond the rhetoric, Americans are feeling the cost of the war amid growing public disapproval of the conflict, which reportedly cost Washington about $40 billion as of July.
In Iran, the effects of the war have been even more severe. The United States is struggling to sell oil, straining an already crippled economy. Iran’s weapons stockpile is also likely depleted, and its people are struggling to obtain necessities such as food and medicine.
The Trump administration may believe it has won the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, the U.S. military escorted 40 commercial ships carrying 18 million barrels of oil through the waterway, a wartime high, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the operation.
However, the broader situation has not improved. Global oil prices fell slightly on Thursday, but remain at high levels.
According to the American Automobile Association, the current national average gas price is $4.14 per gallon, compared to $3.19 a year ago.
How do ships navigate the treacherous maze of the Strait of Hormuz?
Since the war between the United States and Iran began in February, the Strait of Hormuz has become a complex and dangerous maze with many ships passing through it every day. Whether it is already open or closed, tankers have four risky options if they want to cross the waterway.
Meanwhile, the amount of oil in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen in recent months to its lowest level since 1983, as the Trump administration continues to deploy emergency oil to minimize the impact of the war.
On Thursday, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance could not say when the Iran war would end or when gasoline prices would fall below pre-war levels, instead suggesting that it was up to Iran to end the conflict.
On the military front, the United States is depleting its weapons stockpile and deploying expensive military assets. Last month, sources familiar with the matter told CNN that the U.S. military has used up nearly 80% of its main missile defense system’s interceptors.
The U.S. military has used up nearly four-fifths of its THAAD missile inventory compared to prewar numbers and has used up about half of its Patriot interceptor missiles since the war began, according to two sources familiar with inventory reports.
President Trump later claimed that the U.S. has a “large amount” of military supplies, but acknowledged that supplies of some military supplies are “tight.”
The president’s overall approval ratings have declined in recent months, with many taking issue with his handling of the Iran conflict.
A University of Massachusetts (UMass) Amherst poll released Monday found that more than two-thirds of Americans surveyed disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the war. Polls show his overall approval rating has fallen to 32%.
Over the weekend, the Washington Post reported that multiple U.S. military leaders advised Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth that protracted large-scale operations against Iran are unsustainable and risk weakening the United States’ ability to counter other regional threats, citing people familiar with a recent assessment prepared for the Pentagon chief. CNN has not independently verified the report.
Meanwhile, Iran’s already troubled economy faces major challenges.
Inflation has reached “alarming levels” and many working-class families cannot afford basic food items, Iranian state media said.
According to the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA), the annual inflation rate measured in the 12 months ending in July reached 66%.
Like the United States, Iran is depleting its weapons stockpile.
Arash Azizi, a U.S.-based Iran expert, said Iran’s economy has taken a huge hit, but “the regime knows that total surrender could lead to Iran’s collapse.”
The Iranian government may therefore calculate that it cannot absorb the economic pressure forever and that it needs to break the stalemate and escalate its attacks against the United States.
ICG’s Hamidreza Azizi said Iran’s actions, as well as the speed and scope of its response to the previous US attack, indicate that Iran is choosing to respond rather than surrender.
Experts say this is because Tehran cannot afford the general mandate that President Trump appears to be trying to impose on the Strait of Hormuz.
“The events of the last few days have sharpened the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and exposed the fundamental discrepancies between the US and Iranian approaches to the current conflict,” Citrinović said.
While Washington appears to be trying to avoid escalating the movement and keep the conflict contained to the economic realm, Iran is pursuing the opposite strategy, Citrinovich wrote in X.
He said it would “continue to challenge U.S. efforts to disrupt tanker traffic and establish a new reality in the Straits.”
Iran has repeatedly said it is willing to return to the negotiating table if the United States resumes its commitments under the memorandum of understanding it signed in June.
“I can clearly state that if the United States returns to its commitments under the aforementioned memorandum, the Islamic Republic of Iran will retaliate immediately,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday.
But Trump insists he is satisfied with his current position.
“I will not force Iran to the negotiating table,” President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday night, in response to Iran’s retaliation following the U.S. attack. “I think we are in a much better position now that we have almost complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and our economy has completely collapsed.”
Citrinowicz told X that both Iran and the United States “understand the risks of uncontrolled escalation” but “continue to climb the escalation ladder.”
“The problem is that this equilibrium is unlikely to be maintained,” he said.
