The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party heads into Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt with a significant lead in opinion polls. If the party wins a majority, it will be the first time since World War II that a far-right party will be in charge of the country.
The party is expected to win 42% of the vote in Germany’s eastern states, according to pollster Infratest Dimap, a significant increase from its support just a few years ago and could be enough to propel it to power in Germany’s electoral system.
However, there are obstacles to the AfD’s growing success in mainstream German politics.
The party has been classified as “extremist” by German intelligence services for its comments about Germany’s Muslim population and immigration, and has been condemned by mainstream conservatives and progressives alike.
All other political parties in the country operate a so-called “firewall”, an unwritten rule against forming coalitions with the AfD or cooperating with it in parliament. If the AfD fails to win an absolute majority in Sunday’s elections, all other parties could form a motley coalition and lock out government in the state.
Domestic isolation has also forced the AfD to seek cooperation with the MAGA movement in the United States.
That’s partly due to commonalities in right-wing politics and brazen rhetoric and branding. It is now common to see hats with the slogan “Make Germany Great Again” worn at AfD events. And that connection goes far beyond the boundaries of products.
Last year, party co-leader Alice Weidell met with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Before that, she also participated in Elon Musk’s Platform X livestream event. A small group of AfD politicians also traveled to Washington to attend US President Donald Trump’s second inauguration.
In return, Trump administration officials have also lent a helping hand to the party on several occasions. Mr Vance used his 2025 Munich speech to appeal to German lawmakers to abolish the “firewall” against the far right. Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned German authorities’ decision to officially label the party as extremist, calling the decision “a tyranny in disguise.”
But as President Trump continues to raise eyebrows in Europe over some of his foreign policies, particularly the Iran war, the shootout in Greenland, and the intervention in Venezuela, some factions of the AfD now appear interested in distancing themselves.
This comes at a time when America’s reputation has deteriorated among Germans and many of President Trump’s foreign policy decisions are widely disliked. A poll conducted by German public broadcaster ARD in March found that 58% of Germans believed that the attack on Iran was unjustified. And in January, another ARD poll found that 72% of people believed former Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro’s arrest was unjust.
“I think there is ideological consensus on important issues, and I think the AfD is learning from the MAGA movement,” said Almut Meller, director of European and world affairs at the European Policy Center think tank in Brussels. Mellor said the two parties are particularly aligned on rhetoric about how the country should “care about its own people and stop caring about other people.”
“That being said, this relationship is not always easy to handle,” Mellor told CNN. This is especially true when it comes to “policies that affect the German economy,” such as President Trump’s tariffs and the gas pumps hurt during the Iran war.
Against this backdrop, AfD leaders have alternated between praising President Trump’s domestic stance on immigration, culture war issues and nationalism, while criticizing his interference in other countries.
Markus Frohnmeier, an AfD lawmaker and the party’s foreign policy spokesperson, told CNN he has visited the United States multiple times this year and has developed strong ties with the MAGA movement. Speaking in the Oval Office of Congress a few days before the election, he said there were many similarities between the two countries’ politics, particularly on immigration.
The AfD has campaigned on proposals to deport migrants and refugees and expand mass detention facilities. This policy is widely referred to as “immigration.”
Party officials have frequently used anti-Islamic rhetoric and singled out Muslims and Ukrainian residents when talking about people they want to deport.
Another pledge is to establish separate schools to teach refugee children the curriculum of their home countries.
Displaying a U.S. Border Patrol hat on his bookshelf, Frohnmeier called President Trump’s handling of immigration “really impressive,” adding, “I think this is what we need in Germany as well. Really good border control, maybe something like ICE, and that would dramatically improve the situation.”
Frohnmeyer also keeps in his office a famous photo from 2020 of Trump holding a Bible at a church in Washington, D.C., as protests took place near the White House. But Frohnmeyer has made it clear that there are U.S. policies he does not support.
“My colleagues and friends in the United States know that we are more critical when it comes to the Iran war,” he said.
Regarding the most high-profile issue, U.S. tariffs, Frohnmeier said, “So wouldn’t it be a little weird if Donald Trump was defending Germany’s interests?”
He added: “It doesn’t matter if we don’t agree with each other on everything. Both countries need to protect America’s interests, and we are Germans and we try to protect our interests.”
Mr. Frohnmayer, who has also visited Russia many times, has walked a careful tightrope in his foreign policy role, establishing relationships with Kremlin insiders while courting MAGA Republicans.
Russia is probably the centerpiece of elections at the state level.
“We’ve been quite transparent that we want good relations with Russia, but also particularly with the United States, because these are simply important players in this world,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate for Saxony-Anhalt state premier who will lead the state if his party wins a majority of votes on Sunday.
“We take into account the interests of the United States, we take into account Russia’s interests, but we also have our own interests, namely Germany’s interests,” Siegmund said in an interview with CNN in August.
AfD’s support for Russia is no secret. The party opposes further aid or defense measures for Ukraine, often referring to defense funding for Kiev as money not being spent on programs for the German people.
Top party officials also make frequent visits to Moscow, St. Petersburg and occupied Crimea, raising alarm among corruption watchdogs.
The AfD also vowed to reinstate cheap Russian gas, which once fueled Germany but was phased out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But for eastern states such as Saxony-Anhalt, which were once under Soviet rule, “the problem is much more serious than energy costs. Germany has a long tradition of cooperating with Russia,” Möller said.
Of course, issues of foreign relations and immigration are not decided at the state level.
Grégoire Roos, an analyst and head of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, said he expected the AfD to focus more on issues of culture, education and local policing if it secures power in Saxony-Anhalt.
“We’re going to see a similar pattern to what we’ve seen in the United States in terms of how they change school programs and put pressure on police,” Ruth told CNN.
Ruth also said he expected AfD state governments to engage in “culture wars” such as banning LGBTQ+ flags, restricting inclusion policies in schools, enacting rules on flying the German flag in schools, and possibly changing the history books.
“I don’t think they will change daily life per se, but they will violate some of what are considered fundamental freedoms in Germany,” the analyst said. “They will focus on the symbols, understanding that this is a laboratory and a window or magnifying glass to what can be achieved on a national scale.”
A victory would give the AfD a presence in the upper house of Germany’s parliament and would be a symbolic victory for the party, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on national policy.
“This is, of course, a powerful opportunity to basically show that they are now on the threshold of power,” Mellor added. “Saxony-Anhalt is a small federal state with a population of less than 2 million people, but this will resonate more widely.”
Polls suggest the election could go either way. The other main political parties in Saxony-Anhalt have a combined support rating of 54%, according to Infratest Dimap. Some of these parties do not even reach the 5% threshold to be counted, which is why the AfD may secure power with less than half of the voters.
Taken together, the AfD’s expected approval rating of 42% means it will come knocking hard on the gates of power.
