As Washington abandons negotiations with Iran due to an aggressive economic pressure campaign, the cornered Iranian government is now threatening military escalation and broader war to force negotiators back to the table.
US President Donald Trump has ruled out diplomacy with the Islamic Republic, saying the June ceasefire agreement was “not worth the paper it was written on.” Instead, his administration has increased pressure on Iran through a global sanctions campaign, military strikes, and a naval blockade that prevents supplies from entering and exiting the country.
The multi-pronged operation has put Iran under unprecedented pressure, forcing its exhausted population to endure further burdens. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains conspicuously absent. Tuesday marks six months in hiding to avoid the fate of his father and predecessor, Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike at the start of the U.S.-Israel war in late February.
Iranian military officials have increasingly touted new tactics to counter pressure, threatening to target countries participating in the blockade and warning that the conflict could escalate.
A series of attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen hit several towns and cities in Saudi Arabia on Monday, injuring at least 73 civilians and setting off a fire at an energy facility. World oil prices rose by 1%.
Mohsen Rezaei, Chairman of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in an interview with Iranian media on Sunday that “a new strategy must be adopted in fighting war, negotiations and blockades.” He also suggested that Iran could extend its own blockade across the strait by introducing new “no-go zones” in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
“In recent days, the US government has received clear warning from Iran’s new missiles. The economic war will involve the establishment of a maritime no-go zone that extends beyond the Persian Gulf to the blockade border. The operational posture for American warships and bases has been fundamentally recalibrated,” he wrote in X on Tuesday.
Over the past few weeks, Iran and Oman have been slowly negotiating over control of the Strait of Hormuz. On Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghai said a “temporary safe route” through the strait was likely to be registered with the International Maritime Organization “within days.” It is unclear whether the United States will approve the deal being negotiated between Iran and Oman.
Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majid Al-Ansari told CNN’s Becky Anderson that so far mediators have identified two main obstacles to resolving the conflict: political will and technical solutions.
“Political will is based on narrative, which means finding the right narrative for the parties to the conflict to get out of this crisis. And you’re juggling four or five balls at the same time to find all the solutions you need,” he said.
Despite the diplomatic impasse, Iranian officials, including President Massoud Pezeshkian, have reiterated their intention to return to the June deal, which is widely seen by observers as favorable to Tehran. But at home, hardline conservatives remain critical of any deal with the United States, accusing Iran’s president and his negotiators of undermining Iran’s wartime gains.
“Iran is trying to reconcile two pressures: a war-weary population that needs economic relief and an ideological base that doesn’t want to surrender,” Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN. “That’s why the desired outcome is diplomacy, but not retreat, but diplomacy that can be presented domestically as a result of Iranian power.”
Cornered, Iran now faces a quagmire. Without compromise on demands for control of the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear program and sanctions relief, pressure from the United States is unlikely to ease, but any compromise with the United States would make Iranian officials respond to ideologically driven hardliners within the regime.
Hossein Taeb, head of the hard-line militia volunteer group Basij, said on Monday: “The Iranian state will not accept threats, coercion, or negotiations whose outcome undermines the rights of the country.” “Negotiations are meant to secure national rights, not to waive them.”
Despite Iranian and Qatari officials speaking of efforts to restore diplomatic relations, President Trump insisted his tactics were not aimed at “forcing” Iran back to the negotiating table, but instead signaled Washington’s complacency.
“I think we are in a much better position now that we have almost complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and our economy has completely collapsed,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. “They are just playing out the inevitable,” he added, calling on Iranians to “stand up and fight the regime.”
The memorandum sets out a roadmap for further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief, as well as preparing for a future in which Tehran will play a role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for transporting one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies.
In the weeks following the signing of the agreement, Iran attempted to control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States launched a heavy barrage of attacks on Iranian targets along the coastline.
The US Navy has also begun escorting ships carrying crude oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, gradually ramping up oil shipments to ease pressure on the market, while regional countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are shifting oil exports to their customers out of Hormuz.
“Our energy exports will not be held hostage, and neither will our trade and economic activity,” Anwar Gargash, advisor to the UAE president, said at the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi on Monday.
“We are aggressively expanding port capacity along the east coast. Along with pipelines, the necessary rail and trade links to connect alternative freight corridors are also being developed and strengthened,” he added.
Washington has also not eased its military pressure, ordering attacks on Iranian targets, including one last week that killed 18 people. Iranian officials said four people, including a child, were attending a wedding after debris from the U.S. attack hit their home in a village along the Strait of Hormuz.
In response, Iran has targeted regional countries and ships passing through the strait, and Iranian proxies in Yemen have attacked Saudi oil facilities. But the ferocity of the attacks is nothing compared to earlier in the war, when Iran fired hundreds of rockets and drones at regional targets, including Israel, severely disrupting life and damaging stable countries.
“The logic is that the Iranian government cannot just wait for the United States to gradually weaken its military and economic influence,” ICG’s Azizi said. “This does not necessarily mean that Iran wants another major war. Rather, it is likely to be a coordinated escalation in the sense of greater pressure on shipping, escalation of attacks on U.S. military bases, or targeting some targets related to Iranian naval assets or regional energy infrastructure.”
Amid mounting pressure, Iranian lawmakers have issued deterrence messages warning the region of new weapons and tactics, including attacks on warships and bases, while military commanders insist the Iranian military has updated its equipment and systems “in line with emerging threats.”
The aim, Azizi said, is for the “current situation to become sufficiently expensive” for the United States that diplomacy “becomes favorable” again.
However, such a strategy comes with risks.
“Once both sides begin to test each other’s red lines, the risk of miscalculation increases significantly. If an Iranian attack causes significant U.S. casualties or a U.S. response crosses Tehran’s red lines, the conflict could quickly move beyond a coordinated escalation and revert to full-scale war,” Azizi said.
