There have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean 103 days into the season, marking a new record waiting period for the beasts of El Niño.
To date, September 11th was the day of the most recent first hurricanes, Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013). At least that’s the latest information we’ve known with confidence since 1966, when satellites began tracking hurricanes more accurately.
The first hurricane is already over a month late and is not expected to occur in the near future.
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, said Thursday marked the statistical peak of the season, with only five brief tropical cyclones forming so far and now the least active storm since 1950.
The only system to become a hurricane was small Tropical Storm Edouard, which formed on September 1st. Edouard intensified as it made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border at 14 miles per hour short of hurricane strength, cutting off the Gulf’s hot water fuel supply.
Looking ahead, just over 50% of the season’s total activity typically occurs after September 10, but this year El Niño could have an impact on keeping the last part of the Atlantic Ocean in check.
Last year’s first hurricane occurred in mid-August, followed by three more in late September. The United States managed to avoid a hurricane making landfall last year, but if the current low season repeats, it will be the first consecutive year since 2009 and 2010 without a hurricane making landfall.
But what’s worth noting is that hurricanes can find growth opportunities even in the least active years. Since 1966, there hasn’t been a single season without a hurricane. Most notably, the devastating Category 5 Hurricane Andrew made landfall in South Florida in August 1992, which occurred during a season with only seven storms.
September is the peak of hurricane season. This is because the warm water that drives the storm is the most widespread and hottest, and ripe atmospheric factors also play a role. We average about 2-3 hurricanes this month.
The consequences could be dangerous, as Helen in 2024 and Ian in 2022 demonstrated, placing the US Gulf Coast in Category 4.
Water temperatures are currently warm enough for hurricanes, but El Niño-fueled wind shear (aka tropical kryptonite) is worsening the situation.
Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at various levels of the atmosphere and can shatter anything from a budding tropical system to a fully developed hurricane.
This summer, Klotzbach said, record-breaking shear occurred across the so-called prime development region of the Atlantic Ocean, which stretches from Africa to the Caribbean. Many storms in this region start at the peak of the season, from mid-August to early October, but they have largely stopped this year.
Tropical Storm Dolly was the only system to form in this area as of 2026, and was torn apart by a wall of wind shear just 24 hours later. Several other systems were attempted but were also frustrated by shear forces.
The strong winds that fuel El Niño storms will remain an obstacle to the development of the second half of the hurricane season, but that’s no reason to be complacent.
Additionally, late-season storms tend to develop closer to the United States, such as in the Gulf and off the South-South coasts. These areas tend to be less affected by El Niño wind shear and will be closely monitored.
And as we’ve learned already this year, hurricane-strength systems don’t need to cause significant impacts, especially in a world that’s warming and tropical systems are becoming wetter.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur caused widespread flooding along the central Gulf Coast in June. Cottonport, Louisiana, received 29.06 inches of rain in 24 hours, erasing the previous state record of 22 inches set in 1962. This record is still being reviewed and certified.
Less than two weeks ago, heavy rains from Tropical Storm Edouard caused dangerous flash flooding and water rescues in East Texas. A month’s worth of rain fell in one hour, with some areas north of Beaumont receiving precipitation totals of more than 20 inches.
