Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday declared a state of emergency in California to mobilize resources ahead of what could be a historic Super El Niño storm season this winter.
California is likely to be the epicenter of this historically intense El Niño in the United States. Strong El Niño events, such as those active in the tropical Pacific Ocean, rarely spare the Golden State from serious and harmful consequences.
According to a news release from the governor’s office, the declaration will allow the state to “act quickly to protect communities, commit critical resources, and increase preparedness before severe weather events intensify.”
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California is already seeing rising sea levels due to climate change, and the effects could be even more severe when the peak is expected to occur this winter. The state could face a range of risks, from widespread coastal flooding to heavy rain in low-lying areas and snow in the mountains.
Scientists say major coastal flooding is almost certain. High waves generated by intense Pacific cyclones and amplified in height by El Niño can erode parts of fragile coastlines and cut off important coastal transportation arteries.
These El Niño-related hazards will be factored into forecasts regardless of where severe Pacific storms end up, as El Niño increases coastal water levels on top of sea levels already rising due to climate change.
To make matters worse, this year’s El Niño is the peak of an 18-year storm surge cycle, an astronomical phenomenon that causes king tides to rise even higher than normal, said Patrick Barnard, principal investigator at the Center for Coastal Climate Resilience at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
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El Niño itself can also make waves more intense. Barnard said research shows that in years with El Niño, there is about a 30% increase in the wave energy generated by Pacific storms compared to years without climate change. Some past years, such as the Super El Niño event from 2015 to 2016, have shown even higher increases of up to 50% in wave energy.
The expected rise in coastal water levels during this El Niño period (6 inches to 1 foot) will threaten an additional 170,000 people and $60 billion in property compared to non-Super El Niño years, Barnard said.
“We are preparing early for this El Niño because all Californians have the right to stay safe in their homes, connected to their communities, and protected when severe weather strikes,” Newsom said in a news release.
The declaration directs state agencies to begin preparing emergency supplies such as flood protection and snow removal equipment, coordinating public safety efforts with local and tribal governments, and preparing roads and infrastructure.
Research has shown that strong El Niño events are correlated with higher than average precipitation across the state. El Niño-related storms, combined with higher-than-average waves associated with the storm, can cause hazards such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides.
The declaration also “prepares the California National Guard to assist with flood response, search and rescue, engineering, and logistics missions as needed.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest forecast says there is a 75% chance that this Super El Niño will be the strongest since records began in 1950.
